Good morning. Happy Friday.
The Asian/Pacific markets were weak. Japan, China, Hong Kong, South Korea, India, Taiwan, and New Zealand were weakest. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are mostly down. Poland, Turkey, France, Germany, the UAE, Greece, South Africa, Finland, Switzerland, Spain, Italy, Austria, and Sweden are down big. Norway is up. Futures in the States point towards a moderate down open for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: Leading Stocks in Leading Groups —————
The dollar is up. Oil is up huge; copper is down. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Threat of war
Tensions are intensifying in the Middle East as Israel launched “pre-emptive” strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities and military sites, following which it declared a state of emergency in anticipation of retaliation from Tehran. Iran responded by launching over 100 drones at Israel overnight, heightening the risk of an all-out war in the region.
Conflict escalates: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced the launch of “Operation Rising Lion,” which he said was a targeted military operation to “roll back the Iranian threat to Israel’s very survival.” Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei warned of retaliation, saying Israel “has prepared for itself a bitter, painful fate.” The International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed that Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility was hit, but no increase in radiation levels was observed. As for Iran’s drones, Israeli military spokesman Effie Deffrin said defense systems would intercept the threats.
U.S. stance: Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the U.S. was not involved in Israel’s attack on Iran, adding that Israel informed Washington that the strikes were being carried out for self-defense. Prior to the attack, President Donald Trump had warned of a potential strike. To note, the U.S. had already pulled personnel from the Middle East earlier this week due to heightened regional tensions.
Markets react: While the world suspected Israel would launch an attack on Iran, the severity took markets by surprise, with oil prices surging 13% and U.S. stock futures down more than 1%. The U.S. and Iran were slated to continue nuclear talks this weekend, but now it’s unclear if they’ll go ahead. ING Economic and Financial Analysis flagged the risk of disruptions to Iranian oil supplies as well as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which would significantly impact the global LNG market.
What else is happening…
Boeing (BA) 787 crash: Scrutiny on airplane configuration at takeoff.
Trump calls Musk ‘a friend,’ blasts Fed’s Powell for not cutting rates.
CBO estimates Trump’s ‘One Big, Beautiful Bill’ to hurt the poorest.
Sens. Sanders, King introduce bill to end prescription drug ads.
Thermo Fisher (TMO) looks to sell part of its diagnostics business.
China delays approval for Synopsys (SNPS)-Ansys (ANSS) deal.
META ropes in AI firm Scale’s CEO to head superintelligence team.
Tech firms’ new automation AI tools pose threat to ad agencies.
Chime Financial (CHYM) shares jump 37% in first day of trading.
Coinbase (COIN) CEO: Bitcoin is new ‘refuge’ as U.S. debt swells.
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Good morning. Happy Thursday.
The Asian/Pacific markets were weak. Hong Kong, India, Taiwan, and Thailand each dropped more than 1%. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are mostly down. Poland, Turkey, France, Germany, the UAE, Greece, Spain, the Netherlands, Italy, Israel, Austria, Sweden, and Saudi Arabia are all down moderately or big. Futures in the States point towards a moderate down open for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: Leading Stocks in Leading Groups —————
The dollar is down. Oil is down; copper is unchanged. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are up. Bitcoin is down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
On alert
The rush to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon has been expedited in recent months, given the country’s weakened proxies in the Middle East, a damning IAEA report (and subsequent noncompliance resolution), as well as U.S. negotiations that appear locked over enrichment. To note, Iran is the only country in the world without nukes that is producing uranium enriched to 60%, with a “breakout time” that’s only a matter of weeks. “Marg bar Âmrikâ” and “Marg bar Esra’il,” or “Death to America” and “Death to Israel,” have been slogans of the Islamic Republic since the 1979 Revolution, and an attack on its nuke sites could come from the U.S., Israel, or a combination of both.
The latest: “If [talks] don’t [reach a resolution], and conflict is imposed on us, the other side will undoubtedly suffer greater losses,” Iran’s Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh declared on Wednesday. “We will target all U.S. bases in host countries without hesitation.” Meanwhile, President Trump has expressed his disappointment with “delays,” saying he was “much less confident of a deal being made.” As a result, American personnel are being moved out of the Middle East because “it could be a dangerous place,” added Trump, and “we’ll see what happens.” Iran to create new uranium enrichment facility after IAEA vote
The next round of U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations is set to take place in Oman on Sunday, but oil futures are already pricing in risk as WTI (CL1:COM) and Brent crude (CO1:COM) soared about 5% in yesterday’s session. It was the largest one-day dollar and percentage gains for both benchmarks since October 2024, though at $70 per barrel, oil is at a lower level than where it could be trading amid the threat of war. An attack on Iran and broader Middle East escalation could see crude skyrocket to $100-120 per barrel, or even higher, amid the closure of key export hubs and disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz.
Economic impacts: The strait is also critical for liquefied natural gas, with more than one-fifth of the world’s supply passing through the critical chokepoint. Shipping is another area that’s likely to be affected. War-risk premiums, security costs, and rerouting have added to expenses over the past year, and any further increases will likely be passed down to consumers. Also don’t forget a flight to safety in financial markets, further reshoring trends, and another large increase in defense budgets and spending.
What else is happening…
Gold passes euro as second-largest global reserve asset.
Retaining leverage? China to limit rare earth export licenses.
Disney, Universal sue AI startup for copyright infringement.
CPI comes in softer than expected as tariff impact limited.
Voyager’s (VOYG) stellar debut; Chime IPO above range.
RFK Jr. picks eight members to CDC vaccine advisory panel.
Fitch cuts Warner Bros. Discovery’s (WBD) rating to junk.
Shaq agrees to settle over promotion of now-defunct FTX.
Senate advances stablecoin bill supported by crypto industry.
Musk’s Trump truce clears path for autonomous ambitions.
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Good morning. Happy Wednesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets did well. Japan, China, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Taiwan led. Europe, Africa and the Middle East lean down. Norway is up, but Denmark, Poland, Hungary, and Portugal are down. Futures in the States point towards a down open for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: Leading Stocks in Leading Groups —————
The dollar is down. Oil is up; copper is down. Gold is up; silver is down. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Zero-click environment
Did you search Google recently? You probably noticed the new “AI Overview” located at the top of the browser, which answers queries directly without the need to click through to any websites (along with the new “AI Mode”). These zero-click searches might be great for consumers, but for publishers and marketers, they are spelling big problems.
Snapshot: The shift had been happening incrementally, with “Direct Answers” from the search bar, “People also ask” dropdowns, and “About” sections on search engine side panels. Things sped up in 2025, with 60% of searches now ending without a user progressing to another destination, according to research from Bain & Company. Zero-click searches are also accelerating due to the adoption of other major AI applications, with queries migrating to the likes of ChatGPT, Perplexity and Microsoft Copilot (MSFT).
“Google is shifting from being a search engine to an answer engine,” Nicholas Thompson, CEO of The Atlantic, told the WSJ in an interview. “We have to develop new strategies.”
What to do? As publishers witness drops in traffic with limited compensation for their content, CTR and impression metrics may no longer be reliable key performance indicators. Instead, a larger focus is being put on direct partnerships, brand building, referrals and website trustworthiness. Email marketing and social channels like Reddit (RDDT) and Instagram (META) are also playing a bigger part, as well as pivoting to video via platforms like YouTube (GOOGL) and TikTok (BDNCE). Elsewhere, the developments are changing the world of SEO and PPC. Strategies that once focused on keyword placement and backlink acquisition are now being optimized for schema markup and content that can be captured in AI/LLM sources or featured snippets.
What else is happening…
U.S., China agree on trade framework; leaders’ nod pending.
EIA sees first annual drop in U.S. oil production since COVID.
Auto news: Tesla robotaxis and GM reshoring production.
GameStop (GME) reports $6B+ in cash, no new bitcoin buys.
Snap (SNAP) to launch lightweight AR glasses next year.
New record! Nintendo’s Switch 2 is its fastest-selling console.
23andMe (OTC:MEHCQ) sued over plans to sell genetic data.
Meta (META) shells out for Scale AI; OpenAI signs Google deal.
Protests against immigration raids spread beyond Los Angeles.
Dimon sees chance that economic numbers will ‘deteriorate soon.’
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Good morning. Happy Tuesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets leaned up. South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, and Indonesia did well; China and the Philippines were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are doing well. Denmark, Poland, Turkey, Norway, Hungary, the Netherlands, and Portugal are leading; Austria is weak. Futures in the States point towards a positive open for the cash market.
————— BLOG: Winners Keep Winning —————
The dollar is up. Oil and copper are up. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Latest shakeup
Well, that didn’t work so well. Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) is unraveling a $43B mega-merger that was completed in 2022, when WarnerMedia (divested from AT&T) merged with Discovery to create a media and entertainment conglomerate. The thinking here was that the combined entity could result in a streaming powerhouse to take on the likes of Netflix (NFLX) and Disney+ (DIS), while utilizing synergies and a larger slate of offerings to maintain cash-flow-generating cable TV networks.
What went wrong? Cord-cutting and falling ratings have weighed on channels like CNN and TNT, while there has been trouble scoring efficiencies from distinct platforms such as broadcast and streaming. A whole lot of debt was also incurred, which now totals $37B. Servicing that hefty amount has meant the company was unable to direct funds to invest in growth, while its focus on slashing costs has led to the cancellation of big productions like Batgirl, Coyote vs. Acme, and Scoob! Holiday Haunt.
Meanwhile, investors haven’t expressed their love for the initial merger, its subsequent developments, and the direction taken under CEO David Zaslav. The stock has been on the decline since Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) began trading as a merged entity in April 2022, falling from the $25 level to trade below $10 for much of the past two years. The performance even resulted in the recent symbolic rebuke of Zaslav’s $50M compensation package by shareholders, after WBD reported a top and bottom-line miss in Q1 earnings.
Follow the money: The separation into two distinct firms will see “the majority” of WBD’s $37B in debt be piled on the new “Global Networks” company led by CFO Gunnar Wiedenfels, which will house assets like CNN, TNT Sports, Discovery and Bleacher Report. “A smaller portion” of debt will remain with “Streaming & Studios,” which will be led by Zaslav and contain hot properties like Warner Bros., DC Studios, HBO and HBO Max. In addition to the split, WBD has secured a $17.5B bridge loan to buy back its existing bonds, which are trading below par. It hopes the restructuring will save the company further expenses, but the move has been a hot topic of discussion on Seeking Alpha. Shares of WBD closed down 3% on Monday following an initial jump in early trading.
What else is happening…
WSB survey results: Tesla (TSLA) robotaxis likely to underwhelm.
RFK Jr. removes all members of CDC vaccine advisory panel.
Latin America exit: UnitedHealth (UNH) seeks $1B for Banmedica.
Chime Financial (CHYM) IPO demand blows past share supply.
META’s Zuckerberg is hiring to form ‘superintelligence’ AI team.
Apple (AAPL) adds ChatGPT integration to Xcode developer suite.
Microsoft-backed OpenAI hits $10B in annual recurring revenue.
Time to learn Russian? Moscow could attack NATO in five years.
CDC issues salmonella alert for California-processed brown eggs.
Trump highlights $1,000 investment accounts for American kids.
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Good morning. Happy Monday. Hope you had a good weekend.
The Asian/Pacific markets mostly did great. Japan, China, Hong Kong, South Korea, India, and Taiwan posted solid gains. Europe, Africa and the Middle East currently lean down. Poland and the UAE are up; Germany, Italy, Israel, and Austria are down. Several markets are closed. Futures in the States point towards a positive open for the cash market.
————— BLOG: Winners Keep Winning —————
The dollar is down. Oil is up; copper is down. Gold is down; silver is up. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Quadrupling in value
More gains are in store for stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) following a strong IPO debut this past Thursday. After pricing shares at $31, the stock more than doubled in its first day of trading, and then climbed 30% on Friday to end the week at $107.70. It’s now up another 12% in premarket trading to more than $120/share, as investors continue to bet on new forms of money, payment transfers and the future of the financial system. Big U.S. banks explore possibility of issuing joint stablecoin
What’s a stablecoin? Compared to volatility-prone cryptocurrencies like bitcoin (BTC-USD), which can appreciate or depreciate rapidly in value, stablecoins offer the ability to complete a transaction at a “stable” price. Not all are created equal (remember the Terra meltdown?), but the one being offered by Circle – known as USDC (USDC-USD) – is pegged to the U.S. dollar. Think of it as casino chips for the crypto world, or the digital version of cash that lives on the blockchain. Check out Circle’s other product offerings
These tokenized dollars issued by Circle maintain an equal level of greenback reserves to support the currency’s peg (fiat collateralization). Circle makes money by investing most of these reserves in short-term liquid Treasuries, thereby generating interest income, while its holdings now amount to tens of billions of dollars. In terms of overall usage, Ark Invest estimates that stablecoins even overtook Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA) in transaction value in 2024, though those volumes can also reflect repeated transfers between wallets, bot trading, or other arbitrage opportunities. Is the stock a Buy?
The excitement: Offering another ramp for mainstream finance to get into crypto, Circle (CRCL) is the first major IPO in the crypto industry since Coinbase (COIN) in 2021. USDC stablecoins can be transferred at the speed of the internet, with transaction costs at fractions of a cent that can settle almost instantaneously. Circle has also welcomed regulation in all of the countries that it operates, like the GENIUS Act that is making its way through the U.S. Congress. This has assured many investors about the efficiency of stablecoin markets, which have caught on as a way for companies to pay workers around the world, or for conducting peer-to-peer transactions. Take the WSB survey.
Worries and concerns? Check out some key risks flagged by SA Analyst Mike Fay in Circle Internet Group IPO: A Bet On Fiat Survival Through Stablecoins.
What else is happening…
Apple (AAPL) WWDC preview: ‘Low-key’ event on the horizon.
Trump orders National Guard to LA amid immigration protests.
Rare earths key in China talks; Boeing (BA) resumes deliveries.
Tesla (TSLA) loses head of Optimus robot program.
Texas measles cases may have peaked, official says.
White House sets sights on flying cars, so does Jason Mudrick.
New solar installations set to decline as U.S. policies shift.
Bill Ackman opens up on investing, Harvard… and Brad Pitt.
Venezuela eyes 50% fuel price hike amid revenue squeeze.
Rebuilding Syria with SWIFT connection to payment network.
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