Good morning. Happy Friday.
The Asian/Pacific markets leaned to the upside. Indonesia and Thailand did well; India and New Zealand were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently suffering big losses. The UK, Denmark, France, Germany, Finland, Switzerland, Spain, the Netherlands, Italy, Austria, and Sweden are leading to the downside. Futures in the States point to a moderate down open for the cash market.
————— BLOG: Quant Studies to Guide Us into Next Year —————
The dollar is up. Oil is up; copper is down. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Strike price
It’s a good time to be a market maker if your name is Citadel Securities. The firm led by Ken Griffin just scooped up Morgan Stanley’s (MS) electronic options market-making business, further cementing its position in the industry. Citadel is already the No. 1 U.S. equity options specialist, as well as completing 20% of all U.S. equities volumes in Q1, when the company reported a net income of $1.7B.
Things are changing: High-frequency trading firms now dominate the market-making business, where speed and scale are the name of the game. Traditional banks have been struggling to keep up with expensive tech and the latest algorithms, especially given increased regulatory burdens (Volcker Rule and Dodd-Frank) and dedicating resources to other parts of their business. Citadel, Virtu Financial, Susquehanna and Jane Street now dominate the landscape with heavy investment that has granted markets unprecedented levels of liquidity.
Citadel’s latest deal will expand its portfolio of equity options positions and its ability to fill derivative orders. That specifically includes Morgan Stanley’s designated primary market maker role and specialist positions at big exchanges like CBOE, Nasdaq, and the NYSE. However, the developments could spark questions. How does increased consolidation increase the power of high-frequency trading firms? Does “payment for order flow” allow enough transparency for healthy public markets?
In the news: The latest purchase isn’t the only asset Citadel just scored from Morgan Stanley (MS). The firm recently hired neurologist David Stark as its first-ever “chief medical officer” to “support peak performance” at its hedge fund and market-making divisions. Stark had previously served in a similar position at Morgan Stanley and will ensure healthcare benefits and concierge services to “further differentiate Citadel as a place where exceptional people can achieve their highest potential.”
What else is happening…
Pentagon set to be MP Materials’ (MP) largest shareholder.
Trump slaps 35% tariff on Canada, warns against retaliation.
SA Sentiment: Our readers’ top nuclear energy stock picks.
Bitcoin hits all-time high, but what’s the chance of a crash?
Next stop: Tesla (TSLA) applies to test robotaxis in Phoenix.
Delta Air Lines’ (DAL) upbeat outlook fuels travel stocks’ rally.
OPEC: No end in sight for age of oil, demand likely to climb.
Starbucks unscathed, but Brazil tariff rattles Dutch Bros (BROS).
DallasNews (DALN) stock more than triples after takeover.
Fed weighs easing rules to grade banks as ‘well-managed.’
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Good morning. Happy Thursday.
The Asian/Pacific markets leaned to the upside. China, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, and Indonesia did well; Japan, India, and the Philippines were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently doing great. Spain is down, but the UK, Turkey, Finland, Switzerland, Norway, the Netherlands, Sweden, and the Czech Republic are doing well. Futures in the States point to a flat open for the cash market.
————— BLOG: Quant Studies to Guide Us into Next Year —————
The dollar is up. Oil is down; copper is up. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are flat-to-down. Bitcoin is down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
AI kingpin
You called it, and way ahead of time! In a Seeking Alpha survey from November 2024, WSB subscribers were polled on what would be the first U.S. company to reach a $4T market cap. Nvidia (NVDA) was chosen by a landslide, beating out the likes of Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), and others. That forecast has finally been realized, with Nvidia hitting the milestone during the trading session on Wednesday.
Backdrop: Nvidia was co-founded by CEO Jensen Huang back in 1993, when it was only a company popular among video gamers. Its high-performance graphic cards were later leveraged into mainstream computing and virtual reality, but shares really took off in November 2022, following the release of ChatGPT. Nvidia has gone on to shrug off concerns seen at the start of the year, when there was nervousness about the release of AI startup DeepSeek, as well as air coming out of the tech rally and export restrictions on advanced chips to China.
Nvidia is the clear king of the AI revolution, powering the massive infrastructure buildout with its high-performing chips and AI hardware. Demand is not letting up anytime soon, given the Big Tech rivalry over the best large language models and initiatives like the Stargate Project that will drive America’s AI footprint to new heights. It’s been only “beat and raise” quarters for Nvidia with its massive earnings and revenues, giving this Wall Street heavyweight the dominance that should extend its growth story into the future.
Putting it in perspective: Nvidia (NVDA) as a public company is now worth more than the stock markets of entire countries, like Canada, the U.K., France, and Germany. What’s even more amazing is that Nvidia was a penny stock less than a decade ago. If you owned $1,000 worth of Nvidia shares in July 2015, those would now be worth $326,000. Check out the latest Nvidia articles on Seeking Alpha, including the just-published, Nvidia: $4 Trillion And Still Not Expensive, Here’s Why.
What else is happening…
50% tariffs on copper start August 1; Brazil now in the mix.
Linda Yaccarino steps down as CEO of social media firm X.
New U.S. TikTok app to run on its own algorithm and data.
WK Kellogg (KLG) surges on report of Ferrero takeover talks.
UnitedHealth (UNH) names new leader of Medicaid business.
Shipping threat: Houthis sink 2 commercial ships in Red Sea.
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) briefly flirts with record high in risk-on day.
Could an OpenAI browser take aim at Google’s Chrome (GOOG)?
Meta (META) lured Apple (AAPL) engineer with huge pay deal.
Amazon (AMZN): Anthropic boost and the latest on Prime Day.
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Good morning. Happy Wednesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets were mixed. South Korea, Taiwan, Indonesia, and the Philippines did well; Hong Kong, Austria, and New Zealand were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently doing great. Denmark is down, but France, Turkey, Germany, the UAE, Greece, Finland, Spain, Italy, Israel, Austria, and Sweden are posting solid gains. Futures in the States point to a positive open for the cash market.
————— BLOG: Quant Studies to Guide Us into Next Year —————
The dollar is up. Oil is up; copper is down. Gold and silver are down. Bonds are up. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Reshoring, protectionism, revenue
With the “Big Beautiful Bill” crossing the finish line, President Trump has been turning his focus back to tariffs. Since power over the levies is consolidated in the executive branch, it makes them an immediate and effective tool that can be utilized at a moment’s notice. It also mirrors Trump’s negotiating style through direct discussions as opposed to slower trade treaties, domestic subsidies, or other things that have to make their long way through Congress.
Bigger picture: Today, July 9, was actually supposed to be the deadline for all tariff deals, though that date just got punted to Aug. 1. There has also been a slew of other headlines in recent days and weeks, making it difficult to keep track of the White House agenda. Recently notching new record highs, markets have been moving sideways pending updates to the Trump administration’s multi-pronged approach to trade, which could be known as the “tariff triad.” Here is the latest:
Reshore American manufacturing: “They’re building the plants now. About seven have started, but we’re going to have hundreds starting within a short period of time,” President Trump said at a cabinet meeting on Tuesday. “Those plants, when they open up, you’re going to see numbers like you haven’t seen ever. They’re coming in because of the tariffs – they’re not going to pay 25%, 30%, 40%, 50%, 70% and 100%.”
Protect U.S. industries: “The idea [of 50% tariffs on copper] is to bring the ability to make copper, which is key to the industrial sector, back home to America,” Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told CNBC. “With pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, those studies are being completed at the end of the month.” Earlier, Trump announced that tariffs on foreign drugs are going to be “at a very high rate, like 200%.”
Source of government revenue: “We have taken in $100B in tariff revenue thus far this year. That’s with the major tariffs not having started till the second quarter, so we expect that could be well over $300B by the end of the year,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent declared. “We don’t agree with Congressional Budget Office scoring, but for those who do, the CBO scored tariff income over the next ten years at $2.8T, which we think is probably low.”
What else is happening…
Wendy’s (WEN) CEO Kirk Tanner to leave for Hershey (HSY).
ProKidney (PROK) spikes 515% on mid-stage trial data.
Apple (AAPL) in talks for F1 rights; names new operating chief.
U.S. energy demand seen reaching more record levels.
Merck (MRK) eyes $10B buyout of Verona Pharma (VRNA).
U.S. measles cases hit highest level in over three decades.
SpaceX (SPACE) looks to raise new funds at $400B valuation.
‘Shut up!’ Elon Musk tells long-time Tesla (TSLA) bull Dan Ives.
Court strikes down FTC’s ‘click-to-cancel’ rule for subscriptions.
Teens can now book Waymo (GOOG) robotaxi rides in Phoenix.
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Good morning. Happy Tuesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets mostly did well. China, Hong Kong, South Korea, and New Zealand posted solid gains; Thailand was weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently split. Poland, Greece, and South Africa are up; Turkey, Switzerland, Israel, and Sweden are down. Futures in the States point to a flat-to-up open for the cash market.
————— Free Online Course: Mini Masterclass in Trading —————
The dollar is up a small amount. Oil is flat; copper is up. Gold is down; silver is unchanged. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Retail trends
Amazon’s (AMZN) Prime Day sale might as well be called Prime Week at this point, with this year’s promotion set to take place over four days. The global shopping event began back in 2015, and was a 24-hour gig for the first couple of years, before going up to 30 hours in 2017 and 36 hours in 2018. The next year, Prime Day became a two-day bonanza, and that format had stuck until Amazon went all out this year to capture additional shoppers and Prime members.
By the numbers: Adobe Analytics forecasts a record $23.8B in Prime Day spending from July 8 to 11. That tally would represent a 28.4% growth pop from last year’s level. The firm noted that the projected sales tally is equivalent to two Black Fridays, which drove $10.8B in online spending during the 2024 holiday shopping season.
Changes in the industry have driven Amazon to extend the length of its Prime Day event. Walmart (WMT) is kicking off “Walmart Deals” on July 8, one-upping Amazon by extending the event from four days to six, while Target (TGT), Best Buy (BBY) and Kohl’s (KSS) have launched their own competing promotions. It’s especially important in the current environment as confidence slips with tariffs atop consumers’ minds. Extending the length of Prime Day also gives Amazon a bigger window for advertising, which is one of its fastest-growing business segments.
Stock movement: Historically, Amazon (AMZN) shares have gained an average of 2% in the week after Prime Day and just over 4% for the six-week period following the event. See SA Quant ratings for AMZN
What else is happening…
WSB survey results: It might be time to end the two-party system.
META poaches Apple (AAPL) exec in latest high-profile AI hire.
Samsung warns of profit halving due to U.S. curbs on AI chips.
Renewable reliance? DOE is warning of increased blackouts.
CoreWeave (CRWV) scoops up Core Scientific (CORZ) in $9B deal.
Trump to send more weapons to Ukraine after last week’s pause.
Exxon (XOM) expects earnings hit from lower oil and gas prices.
Shein said to file for Hong Kong IPO to salvage London listing plan.
Robinhood (HOOD) under scrutiny in Lithuania over tokenized stocks.
Latest on tariffs: Japan and South Korea face 25% rate next month.
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Good morning. Happy Monday. Hope you had a good weekend.
The Asian/Pacific markets were mxied. Indonesia, Singapore, and the Philippines were up; Japan, Taiwan, and Malaysia were down. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently split. Germany, the UAE and Italy are up; Denmark, Turkey, Hungary, and Portugal are down. Futures in the States point to a negative open for the cash market.
————— Housing Stocks are Now in Play —————
The dollar is up. Oil is flat; copper is down. Gold and silver are down. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Business and politics
“Back to spending 24/7 at work and sleeping in conference/server/factory rooms,” Elon Musk posted only a month ago, before exiting the Department of Government Efficiency and getting in a high-profile clash with President Trump. “I must be super focused on X/xAI and Tesla (plus Starship), as we have critical technologies rolling out.” However, it didn’t take long for Musk to get back into the political arena, unveiling the “America Party” over the July 4th holiday weekend to “give you back your freedom.” See Trump’s reaction
Mission critical? The catalyst for the formation of the America Party was the “Big Beautiful Bill,” which was the final straw in the relationship between Musk and the GOP. The Tesla (TSLA) CEO spent nearly $300M to help Trump get into office, but that backfired when the bill went against his role at DOGE. More importantly, it erased the hefty EV tax credits that have been a major driver of profits for the carmaker (worth $2.8B in 2024) as it faces steep competition and slowing sales. Like many other companies, favorable regulation has been key to the rise of Tesla (TSLA), making it crucial to obtain favorable legislation in areas like clean energy, robotics, self-driving vehicles and AI. Azoria Partners delays Tesla ETF launch
While reducing the debt and responsible spending lay the foundation of the new America Party, there is also a growing shift toward ideological polarization among Democrats and Republicans. That might make it easier to court the many voters who currently define themselves as “politically homeless” and are looking for new alternatives. Musk has not only threatened to oust every member of Congress that voted for Trump’s bill, but has reposted about his new party’s foundational priorities of “free speech, less regulation, pro-tech modernization, and centrist policies everywhere else.” Will Tesla’s board get involved?
What it means: While Musk may see this as a lifeline for his companies like SpaceX, Starlink, and most prominently Tesla (TSLA), shareholders are not digesting it that way (at least for the time being). “Very simply, Musk diving deeper into politics and now trying to take on the Beltway establishment is exactly the opposite direction that Tesla investors/shareholders want him to take during this crucial period for the Tesla story,” Wedbush’s Dan Ives wrote in a research note. Following the news, the EV maker’s stock opened down 7% in premarket trading on Monday and has lost 22% in value since the start of the year, making Tesla (TSLA) the worst performer among the “Magnificent Seven.” Take the WSB survey.
What else is happening…
SA Sentiment: One Fed rate cut in view for the year.
Jurassic World Rebirth stomps to the top of the box office.
Startups race to help brands navigate AI-powered search.
SA Asks: What’s the most attractive AI stock right now?
Oil dips as OPEC+ supply hike raises glut concerns.
U.S. tariffs to take effect on Aug. 1 as trading partners scramble.
Threat to countries aligning with ‘anti-American policies of BRICS.’
Deal discussions begin for TikTok: U.S.-specific app?
Amazon and Walmart launch dueling sales events this week.
What to know about Texas flash floods as death toll crosses 80.
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