Good morning. Happy Friday.
The Asian/Pacific markets were split. Japan, China, Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore, and Thailand did well; India, Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand, and Indonesia were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East currently lean to the upside. Denmark, Finland, the Netherlands, Italy, and Sweden are up; Portugal and Poland are down. Futures in the States point a positive open for the cash market.
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The dollar is up slightly. Oil is up, and copper is down – both small amounts. Gold and silver are down. Bonds are up. Bitcoin is down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
What’s next?
Investors today are looking to Wyoming, and it’s not to book a national park getaway before the summer comes to an end. The annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium hosted by the Kansas City Fed is underway, with Chairman Jerome Powell set to take the stage at 10:00 AM ET. The theme of the 2025 conference is titled “Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy,” which will come at a time when labor market indicators are being challenged and questions swirl over real-time economic data.
Snapshot: The recent massive revision to nonfarm payroll numbers not only made waves after President Trump ousted the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, but also sent policymakers scrambling to make sense of the new numbers. The 258K jobs that were previously thought to have been added in May and June were actually non-existent, meaning the U.S. only added 19,000 and 14,000 jobs for those two months, respectively. Another weak NFP gain of 73K was later recorded in July, indicating a broad slowdown in job growth for the overall labor market.
Typically, that would have seriously worried many Fed officials (and some are), but others are still debating root causes to determine the path forward for monetary policy. If the underlying reasons are linked to Trump’s immigration policies and baby boomer retirement, it might not warrant a strong shift in monetary policy since the downturn is based on labor supply. However, if hiring fundamentals are no longer intact, it could require a bigger dose of monetary stimulus, though that could also be complicated by signs of inflation heating up in the latest CPI and PPI prints.
The big show: Fed Chair Jerome Powell is likely to share some of his thoughts on the matter this morning and what it might mean for the interest rate outlook and long-term policy goals. Wild trading can ensue following the closely watched event, like the notable Jackson Hole hangover of 2022, which saw all three of the major averages slump between 3%-4% after Powell shot down any hopes that the Fed would telegraph a pivot on its aggressive policy tightening. “Equity markets, for its part, are entering this [year’s] symposium near their highs, and stocks are largely priced for further confirmation of an easing in rates in September,” SA Analyst Justin Purohit noted. “That does leave investors vulnerable if Powell’s speech underwhelms and delivers unexpected surprises.”
What else is happening…
Meta’s (META) AI chief clears the air on Superintelligence Labs.
Musk discussed teaming up with Zuckerberg for this acquisition.
Are you ready for the NFL season? Kalshi and Polymarket are.
Cracker Barrel (CBRL) stock plunges amid new logo controversy.
Trump weighs using $2B in CHIPS Act funding for critical minerals.
CoreWeave (CRWV) climbs as Jane Street acquires 5.4% stake.
Goldman backs Thoma Bravo’s Dayforce takeover with $6B of debt.
US, EU clarify framework details for autos, pharma and more.
Tech giants Google (GOOGL) and META sign $10B cloud deal.
Latest on trade: Trump and Carney and India and Russia.
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Good morning. Happy Thursday.
The Asian/Pacific markets were split. Taiwan, Australia, and New Zealand did well; Japan and Hong Kong were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East currently lean to the downside. Poland, Turkey, South Africa, and Norway are up; France, Finland, Switzerland, Hungary, Spain, Austria, and Sweden are down. Futures in the States point a moderate down open for the cash market.
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The dollar is up slightly. Oil is up; copper is down. Gold is up; silver is down. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
C-suite highlights
Earnings this week are covering the retail sector, which provides a good barometer of consumer spending that makes up the majority of GDP. Things are especially on watch this time around, given fears of resurgent inflation or what tariffs might do to prices. While much of the earnings numbers are company-specific, the developments can give investors a sense of the latest happenings in the sector, as well as management commentary on accompanying conference calls.
TJX Companies (TJX): Shares hit an all-time high after exceeding expectations across all key metrics. The strong performance prompted the off-price retailer to raise its full-year guidance, as consumers seek out value in the current retail and economic environments.
“Consumers were drawn to our excellent values and brands. We see outstanding buying opportunities in the marketplace for quality branded merchandise [and] believe the strength and resiliency of our flexible off-price business model will continue to be a tremendous advantage.” – CEO Ernie Herrman
Home Depot (HD): The home improvement retailer’s stock took off and then lost some ground after mixed results and maintaining its current guidance. Management flagged the current rate environment, which is giving customers pause on larger remodeling projects.
“We saw our customers engage more broadly in smaller home improvement projects. In fact, the performance across the business was the strongest we’ve seen in over 2 years. A little help on the interest rate front would be helpful… and the tax package that passed that should put some more discretionary spending in our consumers’ wallets.” – CEO Ted Decker
Lowe’s (LOW): The Home Depot rival rallied after boosting its outlook and unveiling a major acquisition. The $8.8B purchase of Foundation Building Materials (FBM) will advance its Total Home strategy and deepen Pro market penetration, but management had the following to say about the macro situation on the conference call:
“There is becoming more and more of a shortage of skilled trades, master plumbers, carpentry, electricians, and we’re starting to see that pop up in different parts of the country. But overall, our Pros feel really good about their prospects for the balance of the year.” – CEO Marvin Ellison
Target (TGT): Shares of the discount store chain slid 6.3% since earnings on Wednesday morning, but most of the decline was due to a new insider CEO pick and fears of a lackluster turnaround amid declining comparable sales.
“As one of the largest importers in the country… we’re still facing a highly volatile and uncertain [tariff] environment and believe it’s prudent to maintain a cautious approach in the back half of the year.” – CFO James Lee
Coming up: Possibly the biggest heavyweight of the bunch, Walmart (WMT) just reported earnings early this morning. Check out the results here, with the conference call scheduled for 8:00 AM ET.
What else is happening…
Meta (META) pauses AI hiring amid broader restructuring.
China mulls yuan-backed stablecoins to boost currency use.
Not only Powell: Trump presses another Fed official to step down.
CME, FanDuel (DUEL) partner for event contracts platform.
Chipotle targets Gen Z students with new rewards program.
Fox (FOX) eyes younger viewers with new streaming service.
Bernie Sanders backs Trump’s plan for stake in Intel (INTC).
No more approvals for any wind or solar power projects.
UnitedHealth (UNH) forms new committee to monitor risks.
Auto retailers in spotlight after Hertz-Amazon (AMZN) deal.
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Good morning. Happy Wednesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets leaned to the upside. China, New Zealand, India, and Thailand did well; Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently quiet. Turkey is up; Poland, Israel, and Austria are down. Futures in the States point a down open for the cash market.
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The dollar is down slightly. Oil is up; copper is flat. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are up. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Low returns?
Companies across sectors are betting on artificial intelligence, with progress in the innovation pushing tech stocks to lofty valuations in recent months. But investors continue to be concerned about how these huge investments will pay off. A recent study on enterprises using generative AI may add to those concerns.
The divide: “Despite $30B-$40B in enterprise investment into generative AI, this report uncovers a surprising result in that 95% of organizations are getting zero return,” a study from a branch of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology revealed. “Just 5% of integrated AI pilots are extracting millions in value, while the vast majority remain stuck with no measurable profit and loss impact.” The study – titled ‘The GenAI Divide: State of AI in Business 2025’ – is based on 150 interviews with professionals, a survey of 350 employees, and an analysis of 300 public AI deployments.
The main issue appears to be flawed enterprise integration. “The GenAI Divide is starkest in deployment rates, only 5% of custom enterprise AI tools reach production,” according to the study. “Chatbots succeed because they’re easy to try and flexible, but fail in critical workflows due to lack of memory and customization.” Also, procuring AI tools from vendors and building partnerships succeed around 67% of the time, while developing tools internally succeed only one-third as often.
Huge bets: The study comes as AI startups continue to secure massive funding, raising some $122B so far this year, according to BestBrokers. But most of this capital is concentrated among leading AI firms such as OpenAI and Anthropic. “For smaller AI startups, this has made fundraising considerably more difficult, as venture firms are growing more inclined to back safer bets in today’s strained economy,” said Paul Hoffman, editor-in-chief, BestBrokers.
What else is happening…
Trump expands steel, aluminum tariffs to 407 products.
U.S. eyes stakes in chipmakers tied to CHIPS Act grants.
Meta (META) to overhaul AI division amid internal tensions.
Walmart (WMT) recalls frozen shrimp that may be radioactive.
How does Viking’s (VKTX) weight-loss pill stand up to rivals?
Pediatrics group defies CDC, backs COVID shots for infants.
Bullish (BLSH) gets $1.15B IPO proceeds in stablecoins.
Robinhood is latest to challenge traditional sports betting.
No U.S. ground troops in Ukraine, air support possible.
Tracking Trump’s bond purchases since he took office.
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Good morning. Happy Tuesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets leaned down. India and Singapore did well, but South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, Indonesia, and Thailand were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are doing great. Denmark, Poland, France, Finland, Switzerland, Hungary, the Netherlands, Italy, Portugal, Israel, Austria, and Sweden are up solidly. Futures in the States point to a slight down open for the cash market.
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The dollar is down. Oil and copper are down. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are up. Bitcoin is down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
$2B lifeline
Intel (INTC) has secured a major vote of confidence, as Japanese investment giant SoftBank (OTCPK:SFTBY) agreed to invest $2B in the troubled chipmaker. The announcement, which sent Intel’s shares rising 5.4% to $24.93/share after hours on Monday, followed reports of the U.S. government eyeing an investment in the company.
Capital injection: SoftBank will buy $2B worth of Intel stock at $23/share, which would give the Japanese firm an around 2% stake, making it Intel’s sixth-largest shareholder. “This strategic investment reflects our belief that advanced semiconductor manufacturing and supply will further expand in the United States, with Intel playing a critical role,” said SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son. SoftBank will reportedly not seek a board seat or commit to buying Intel’s chips.
Partial nationalization? The announcement comes as the Trump administration is reportedly considering picking up a 10% stake in Intel. This would make the U.S. government its largest shareholder and would require about $10.5B, which could potentially be paid for by CHIPS Act funds. To note, Intel has already been awarded about $10.9B in CHIPS Act grants. The plan for a potential government stake is said to have emerged from last week’s meeting between President Donald Trump and Intel CEO Lip-Bu.
SA commentary: According to SA analyst Weebler Finance, the U.S. government’s interest hints at Intel’s potential to be a critical player in the U.S. semiconductor value chain and national security strategy. They added that Intel’s renewed game plan to turn around its business creates a favorable risk/reward dynamic. But SA analyst Oriental Trader struck a more cautious note, given Intel’s poor results in recent years and “all of this hype and government support could amount to nothing.”
What else is happening…
Seeking Alpha Sentiment Survey: Take it here and see the results.
Zelenskyy courts Trump with offer for $90B worth of U.S. weapons.
Palo Alto Networks (PANW) issues strong outlook, founder to retire.
Arm (ARM) poaches Amazon AI exec to boost chipmaking plans.
OpenAI’s Altman: AI bubble exists, but its importance remains real.
S&P affirms U.S. credit rating as tariffs to help offset fiscal slippage.
Fitch revises U.S. effective tariff rate on rising USMCA compliance.
Latest battle in GLP-1 market share war: cash-paying customers.
TV broadcaster Sinclair (SBGI) seeks merger with Tegna (TGNA).
Meme revival: Bed Bath & Beyond will be tradeable once again.
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Good morning. Happy Monday. Hope you had a good weekend.
The Asian/Pacific markets were mixed. Japan, China, India, Taiwan, New Zealand, and Malaysia did well, while Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore, and Thailand did poorly. Europe, Africa and the Middle East lean to the downside. Denmark and Portugal are doing well, but France, Germany, South Africa, Spain, Austria, and Sweden are down. Futures in the States point to a down open for the cash market.
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The dollar is up. Oil is up; copper is down. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are up. Bitcoin is down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
The agenda
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and European leaders are set to meet Donald Trump in Washington today, days after Trump’s summit with Russia’s Vladimir Putin last week. The leaders aim to present a united front while mapping out a peace agreement.
On the table: Details have emerged of the offer that Putin put forward during his summit with Trump in Alaska, as reported by Reuters, which cited sources briefed on Moscow’s thinking. Under the proposal, Kyiv would cede swathes of its eastern land that Moscow has been unable to capture. This would involve Kyiv fully withdrawing from Donetsk and Luhansk, which make up the strategic eastern Donbas region that’s rich in coal and critical minerals. Russia currently controls almost all of Luhansk and about 70% of Donetsk.
In return, Russia would pledge to freeze the front lines in the southern Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. It would return smaller pockets of Ukraine’s northern Sumy and northeastern Kharkiv regions that it has occupied, totaling ~170 square miles. Putin also sought formal recognition of Russia’s sovereignty over Crimea, and wants Ukraine to be barred from joining NATO. However, he’d be open to Ukraine receiving some kind of security guarantees.
Trump’s stance: Ahead of Monday’s meeting, Trump placed the onus of ending the war on Zelenskyy, saying the Ukrainian leader can do so “almost immediately,” if he wants to. “No getting back Obama given Crimea (12 years ago, without a shot being fired!), and NO GOING INTO NATO BY UKRAINE,” Trump said. Zelenskyy insisted that peace must be lasting. “Not like it was years ago, when Ukraine was forced to give up Crimea and part of our East – part of Donbas, and Putin simply used it as a springboard for a new attack,” he added. Take the WSB survey.
What else is happening…
AI race: Risks of Big Tech’s talent grab, coding boom fizzles.
CoreWeave insiders sell over $1B stock as IPO lock-up ends.
Tesla (TSLA) almost halves monthly leasing payments in UK.
FDA clears Novo Nordisk’s (NVO) Wegovy for liver disease.
Russia opens door for Exxon’s (XOM) return to Sakhalin-1.
Credit Pulse: Card delinquencies edge up, charge-offs slide.
Travel rewards lose shine as banks, airlines tighten perks.
Penny stock selloffs fuel pump-and-dump scam concerns.
Stocks that retail investors love the most and like the least.
SA Roundtable: Which companies may be acquired soon?
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