Good morning. Happy Friday.
The Asian/Pacific markets leaned down. China did well, but Japan, Malaysia, Indonesia, Taiwan, and the Philippines were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East currently lean down. Norway is up, but Denmark, Poland, Greece, Hungary, and Spain are down. Futures in the States point to a moderate down open for the cash market.
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The dollar is up. Oil is down; copper is up. Gold and silver are down. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Little things count
U.S. imports of packages worth less than $800 will no longer be duty-free from today as the Trump administration formally ends the so-called “de minimis” exemption. Parcels will also face tighter customs checks, impacting the 4M shipments that make their way into the country each day. The U.S. has tasked transportation carriers to collect and remit duties based on the tariff rate of their country of origin, or they can temporarily pay a fixed amount per item that ranges from $80 to $200.
Some history: The “de minimis” exemption first surfaced in the Tariff Act of 1930 to “avoid the expense and inconvenience” of collecting small amounts of U.S. import duties. At the time, it only applied to packages worth under $1 (or the equivalent of $20 in today’s currency). Decades later, the threshold was raised, including to $5 in 1978, and then to $200 in 1993, but the biggest change came in 2015, when the amount was raised to $800 to expand the growth of small business and e-commerce marketplaces. That led to the rise of direct-to-consumer business models like Shein and Temu (PDD), which were later bolstered by Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods implemented during his first term.
Now coming to an end… It all means that Americans will be more careful about where they order from or will need to double-check final prices when purchasing goods online. Currently, “de minimis” shipments account for 92% of all cargo entering the U.S. and that figure had been “growing in epic proportions.” With its new executive order, the Trump administration aims to crack down on dangerous narcotics, traffic counterfeits, and other illicit goods, while raising needed revenue for the federal government in the process (see the chart below).
Stocks to watch: “Logistics giants UPS (UPS), FedEx (FDX) and DHL (OTCPK:DHLGY) face headwinds from reduced package volumes, putting their dividends at risk and warranting caution from income-focused investors,” according to SA analyst APAC Investment News. “Etsy (ETSY) and ThredUp (TDUP) could benefit as higher import costs make secondhand and domestic goods more attractive, though profitability remains a concern for ThredUp. Amazon (AMZN) stands to gain competitive ground as rivals like Temu and Shein lose their price advantage, potentially strengthening Amazon’s U.S. e-commerce dominance.” See the full article here
What else is happening…
Q2 GDP growth revised higher, PCE increase revised lower.
Senate set to confirm Trump’s Fed nominee before Sept. meeting.
Lumber nears bear market territory as tariff-driven rally fizzles.
Sen. Graham urges tariffs on Norway over Caterpillar divestment.
Industrial giant raises expected full-year impact of tariffs to $1.8B.
White House picks RFK Jr. deputy as interim CDC director.
India set to increase Russian oil imports, defying U.S. demands.
Exxon (XOM): Global net zero goals fading as coal use climbs.
EU pitches scrapping tariffs on U.S. goods for lower auto duties.
Fed’s Waller expects additional rate cuts over the next 3-6 months.
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Good morning. Happy Thursday.
The Asian/Pacific markets leaned down. Japan and China did well, but Hong Kong, India, Taiwan, and the Philippines were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are quiet, with a lean to the downside. Denmark, the UAE, Greece, and Saudi Arabia are down. Futures in the States point to a positive open for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: Don’t Panic When the Market Weakens —————
The dollar is down. Oil is down; copper is up. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are up. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Fierce backlash
It’s been quite the week for restaurant chain Cracker Barrel (CBRL), which made it into the news cycle for a logo change that’s part of its $700M rebrand campaign. The symbol booted “Old Timer Uncle Herschel” in favor of a barrel-shaped wordmark to “celebrate the diversity of all our guests” and “passion for pleasing people of all races, colors, and genders,” but it didn’t go over well among customers and investors. The stock slumped as much as 14% before climbing back, and advanced another 8% to $62 on Wednesday after reverting to its old logo.
Snapshot: To note, Cracker Barrel’s stock never recovered after COVID, when it was trading in the $170-per-share range. Traffic has consistently declined and same-store sales have struggled to maintain positive momentum, while its overall business model and calorie-rich menu have struggled to adapt to changing consumer preferences. Cracker Barrel also receives an “F” rating in Growth and “C-” in Profitability according to Seeking Alpha Quant, reflecting long-term operational challenges that’ll need to be addressed by CEO Julie Felss Masino (who was brought in to turn around the company in 2023).
“They got a Billion Dollars worth of free publicity if they play their cards right. Very tricky to do, but a great opportunity,” President Trump wrote on Truth Social. “Congratulations ‘Cracker Barrel’ on changing your logo back to what it was. All of your fans very much appreciate it. Good luck into the future. Make lots of money and, most importantly, make your customers happy again!”
Bud Lighted? “Honestly, the feedback has been overwhelmingly positive that people like what we’re doing… The buzz is so good,” Felss Masino responded last week when asked on Good Morning America what would happen “if all the customers are coming at you hard enough about the look of the restaurant and want to go back to the old way.” There have also been calls on social media for her to step down, as well as a fresh campaign by one of Cracker Barrel’s largest investors – Sardar Biglari – whose firm owns a nearly 5% stake in the company. However, Biglari is also the owner of fellow chain Steak ’n Shake, and has run seven mostly unsuccessful proxy fights against Cracker Barrel management for more than a decade.
It was an impressive quarter for Nvidia (NVDA), but seemingly not enough? While shares slipped 3.1% to $175.97 in AH trading on Wednesday, the stock has now pared most of those losses and is only dollars away from its all-time high. Catch up on the latest below:
Results and guidance beat + Focus on data center revenue + Major buyback
Still waiting for Trump’s 15% commission plan to be codified – Nvidia CFO
‘Zero-China’ Quarter: With This Baseline, What Happens When China Returns?
What else is happening…
Mexico plans to raise tariffs on China after U.S. push.
Amazon’s Zoox (ZOOX) preps to be a robotaxi player.
White House fires CDC director, four senior officials quit.
Kohl’s (KSS) soars on profit beat, raises EPS guidance.
YouTube (GOOGL), Fox (FOX) reach short-term extension.
American Eagle (AEO) launches Travis Kelce collection.
Musk tries to stop OpenAI from getting bid docs from Meta (META).
Microsoft fires two workers over sit-in protest at president’s office.
Concerns that U.S. grain supply could outstrip demand.
Overbought vs. Oversold: Breakdown of S&P sectors’ RSI.
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Good morning. Happy Wednesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets were mixed. Taiwan and the Philippines did well while China, Hong Kong, and New Zealand were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently mixed. Denmark, France, and Israel are up; Poland, Turkey, Austria, and Saudi Arabia are down. Futures in the States point to a down open for the cash market.
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The dollar is up. Oil is up; copper is down. Gold and silver are down. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
In focus
It’s that time of the quarter again! Nvidia (NVDA) will report its latest results after the closing bell, marking the last “Magnificent 7” member to reveal its numbers. The company’s figures are watched far and wide – not only because they can impact hundreds of ETFs – but also because Nvidia is the clear leader of the AI revolution that has bolstered the overall market.
By the numbers: Only a month ago, Nvidia became the first company in the world to reach the $4T valuation milestone amid expectations that hyperscalers will continue to build out their infrastructure, given consistent raises in capex projections. While there have been some concerns about how long those mega investments will keep up, Nvidia has continued to broaden its product pipeline (Blackwell Ultra and Jetson Thor), as well as expand into new markets (China, UAE and Saudi Arabia).
Can the most valuable company in the world reach another record high? Quite possibly. Options trading already indicates that big price swings could be in store, with a gain or loss of as much as 6% for Nvidia in after-hours trading. Expectations are key here, so look beyond the consistent double-beat streak to guidance, as well as what analysts feel about the latest growth rates and projections.
What else to watch: Pay close attention to China, which will likely be part of the post-earnings call with CEO Jensen Huang. An unconventional deal was recently cut for Nvidia (NVDA) to sell to China in exchange for paying the U.S. government 15% of those revenues, but the Chinese government later warned local companies of potential “backdoor security risks.” Nvidia then reportedly halted production of those H20 chips, though Huang told reporters last week that “hopefully the response we’ve given to the Chinese government will be sufficient.”
Earnings from Nvidia (NVDA) are on tap this afternoon. Check out the latest SA analyst commentary about the AI darling, which is up 35% YTD and makes up the highest concentration of the S&P 500 (SP500) with a record weighting of 8%:
Nvidia Brings Blackwell To Robotics
Buying Access To China’s AI Chip Market
Nvidia Will Hit Another Jackpot With This New Product
What else is happening…
Trump team looking at options regarding regional Fed banks.
Cracker Barrel (CBRL) reverts to old logo; stock gains 7% AH.
SpaceX’s (SPACE) Starship test goes smoothly after setbacks.
Exxon (XOM) held secret talks with Rosneft on return to Russia.
RFK Jr.: Negotiations to lower drug prices reach advanced stage.
EchoStar soars on AT&T’s (T) $23B deal to buy spectrum assets.
White House is weighing stakes in defense contractors – Lutnick.
Canada Goose (GOOS) gains after drawing take-private offers.
Taylor Swift Effect: Singer’s engagement sparks Signet (SIG) rally.
50% tariffs on India kick in; China summit to showcase solidarity.
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Good morning. Happy Tuesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets suffered moderate losses. Japan, China, Hong Kong, South Korea, India, New Zealand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines were all very weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are mostly weak. Denmark, France, Greece, Spain, the Netherlands, Italy, Austria, and the Czech Republic are down. Two hours before the open, futures in the States point a down open for the cash market.
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The dollar is down. Oil and copper are down. Gold is up; silver is down. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
You’re fired!
The drama at the Federal Reserve is continuing after President Trump fired Governor Lisa Cook, who promptly responded that she will remain in the position and not resign. At issue are allegations of mortgage fraud, with Cook listing two properties she bought in 2021 (in Georgia and Michigan) as both her primary residences. That declaration generally results in lower mortgage rates, but Cook said she is still “gathering the accurate information to answer any legitimate questions and provide the facts.”
What the law says: Things are legally murky, and there is a lack of precedent, as no president has ever sought to remove a Federal Reserve governor. The Federal Reserve Act of 1913 only permits removal for “cause,” which Cook maintains doesn’t exist in this case. However, Trump has pointed to the alleged charges of “negligence” and “deceitful and potentially criminal conduct in a financial matter,” which challenge her “competence and trustworthiness as a financial regulator.”
What happens next will soon be seen, but the case could end up at the Supreme Court. The dollar and U.S. Treasuries have not responded significantly after the latest step to remake the Fed board, which follows Governor Adriana Kugler’s resignation and Trump’s nomination of Council of Economic Advisors Chair Stephen Miran. Much pressure has also been put on Fed Chair Jay Powell, who recently hinted at rate cuts in Jackson Hole. The latest targeting of Lisa Cook for criminal acts might be another message to Powell to get out of the way or risk being taken to task over renovations at the Fed.
Fine print: While Powell’s term as board chairman expires in May 2026, he could stay on as Fed governor for another two years, which is the real worry of the Trump administration. In that role, Powell could be somewhat of a shadow Fed chair, especially with around 3 out of the remaining 5 Fed board governors subscribing to his policy views (Miran is in the middle of a confirmation process). The reason why Trump is upping the pressure is that he wants Powell to be uncomfortable – or legally worried – about continuing in a governor spot past next year, which would give Trump another nomination and a majority of his appointees on the board (even without Cook). Making sense of Federal Reserve member math
What else is happening…
Intel (INTC) slips as it says government stake ups risks.
Most WSB subscribers don’t see the deal as a good idea.
Mercedes-Benz pension fund to offload stake in Nissan.
South Korea bets on U.S. shipbuilding for trade advantage.
Trump threatens more tariffs on nations with digital taxes.
Cracker Barrel (CBRL) responds to backlash over new logo.
Musk’s AI lawsuit and Perplexity’s revenue share model.
Banks lobby to close loophole for interest on stablecoins.
A new China tariff threat with a Boeing (BA) bargaining chip.
ETF flows on track to eclipse $1T for second straight year.
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Good morning. Happy Monday. Hope you had a good weekend.
The Asian/Pacific markets posted solid gains. China, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, Indonesia, and Thailand led. Europe, Africa and the Middle East currently lean to the downside. Poland and Turkey are up, but Denmark, France, Hungary, Spain, and Portugal are down. Futures in the States point a negative open for the cash market.
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The dollar is up. Oil and copper are up. Gold and silver are down. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Active roles
Are the lines getting blurred between the private and public sectors? Many are debating that very topic as the White House takes an outsized influence over the economy and Corporate America. Some have even likened the recent developments to state capitalism, or at least a reshaping of industrial policy, while others deem it necessary in the current environment to maintain competitiveness and protect U.S. industry.
Snapshot: Things may have started with plans to create the first-ever American sovereign wealth fund, but that quickly spread to dealmaking, government stakes and the terms for conducting business. Examples: As a condition for approval of the Nippon Steel (OTCPK:NPSCY)-U.S. Steel combination, the Trump administration demanded a so-called “golden share” for the government, and later secured a $550B investment from Japan that would be directed at “President Trump’s direction.” Last month, the Pentagon became the largest shareholder in rare earth producer MP Materials (MP), while on Friday, the government took a 10% stake in semiconductor manufacturer Intel (INTC). iPhone maker Apple (AAPL) also circumvented hefty tariffs by promising the administration billions in U.S. investment, and Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD (AMD) secured approval to sell to China in exchange for paying Uncle Sam a percentage of those revenues.
For: Those that support the policies often frame them as necessary for national security or as a response to unfair trade practices by other nations. Administration officials have deemed them as “strengthening U.S. leadership” or helping to grow the economy to “secure America’s edge.” Broad tariffs can also be seen as a key feature of a state-led economic policy that is needed to safeguard domestic jobs, level the playing field, and revitalize American manufacturing.
Against: Others have likened recent moves to picking winners and losers, or even nationalization that can lead to free market interference. “Corporate welfare” has been a term that has been tossed around, with fears of “crony capitalism” or even “steps toward socialism.” As these types of deals expand, there is concern about the federal government having more say in American businesses, which can set a precedent for coming administrations or expand the power of the executive branch. Take the WSB survey.
What else is happening…
Reaction Roundup: Experts on Powell’s Jackson Hole speech.
Blue-chip Dow (DJI) notches its first record close of the year.
Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) to acquire JDE Peet’s for $18B.
Coca-Cola (KO) said to weigh sale of UK coffee chain Costa.
Renewable ruin: Ørsted wind project stopped off Rhode Island.
Spotify (SPOT) signals price hikes along with new features.
Meta (META) poised to unveil consumer-ready smart glasses.
SpaceX (SPACE) scrubs Starship test minutes before liftoff.
Trump threatens tariffs on imported furniture within 50 days.
Redfin: More home buyers are getting cold feet amid high costs.
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