Good morning. Happy Friday.
I may discontinue this morning post. Most of this is copy & pasted from Seeking Alpha. They’ve changed what they post, and most of it isn’t timely; it doesn’t pertain to that day’s premarket happenings. If you have comments, let me know.
The Asian/Pacific markets did well. Japan, China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, New Zealand, and Thailand led. Europe, Africa and the Middle East currently lean to the upside. Poland, South Africa, Finland, the Netherlands, Sweden, and the Czech Republic are up; Greece is down. Futures in the States point to a positive open for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: State of the Market —————
The dollar is down. Oil is down; copper is up. Gold is up; silver is down. Bonds are up. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Settling the matter
The non-farm payrolls report for August is due today, published at 8:30 AM ET, and is expected to show a “fairly steady” unemployment rate in the current low-hiring, low-firing environment. On average, economists expect nonfarm payrolls of just 74K in August, slightly above the prior month’s 73K, with the jobless rate inching up to 4.3% from 4.2% in July. Markets are particularly on edge, but they remain confident the Fed will start cutting rates when it meets in mid-September, following the last month’s weak NFP report and Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish shift at Jackson Hole.
Snapshot: The central bank will continue to keep a close eye on the unemployment rate in particular, as Trump’s immigration policies limit labor supply, Glassdoor Economist Daniel Zhao said in an interview with Seeking Alpha. Healthcare payroll gains – among the largest contributors to overall employment – will be another indicator worth watching. “If we start to see a slowdown in healthcare, that really does raise some red flags about the sustainability of our jobs growth streak that we’re on when the rest of the economy is so sluggish.”
However, the big tell will be revisions. As in previous months, large revisions to earlier payroll figures could reshape the picture and spell trouble for the U.S. central bank’s soft-landing efforts. With a labor market already slowing and inflation risks tilted higher in the face of tariff uncertainty, “there is less margin for error,” Zhao explained. May and June payrolls both experienced outsized revisions in last month’s report, signaling that job creation in the U.S. was weaker than previously estimated, and “we shouldn’t be surprised if we see large revisions for June and July as well.” Is there a better system for collecting U.S. job numbers and economic data?
Elsewhere: Wage growth is expected to remain elevated, though it’s not “sending warning signals as an inflationary factor,” Zhao declared, noting “it’s fairly close to where it was before the pandemic.” With most signals pointing to a cooling job market, he doubts the Fed will lean too heavily on wages to delay rate cuts. The annual revision of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ payrolls benchmark is also slated for release next week, making it the last major jobs data before the FOMC gathers on Sept. 16-17.
What else is happening…
Report: OpenAI to launch its first AI chip with Broadcom (AVGO).
GM (GM) cutting back on EV output amid dampening demand?
Porsche to be removed from Germany’s blue chip DAX.
Waymo (GOOGL) gets permit to operate at San Jose airport.
Trump signs Japan trade pact, capping tariffs at 15%.
SEC unveils agenda to revamp cryptocurrency policies.
… Nasdaq (NDAQ) tightens rules on firms hoarding tokens.
Will RFK Jr. replace CDC vaccine panel members again?
Lululemon (LULU) plunges on tariff headwinds, soft U.S. sales.
DOJ sues Southern SoCal Edison (EIX) for sparking two wildfires.
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Good morning. Happy Thursday.
I may discontinue this morning post. Most of this is copy & pasted from Seeking Alpha. They’ve changed what they post, and most of it isn’t timely; it doesn’t pertain to that day’s premarket happenings. If you have comments, let me know.
The Asian/Pacific markets were mixed. Japan, South Korea, and Australia did well; China, Hong Kong, and Thailand were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently mostly up. Poland, Turkey, Germany, Switzerland, Hungary, Spain, Norway, Portugal, Israel, and the Czech Republic are up; South Africa is down. Futures in the States point to a positive open for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: State of the Market —————
The dollar is up. Oil and copper are down. Gold and silver are down. Bonds are up. Bitcoin is down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Wagers and payouts
The kickoff of the 2025 NFL season will take place tonight as the reigning Super Bowl LIX champions, the Philadelphia Eagles, take on longtime rivals, the Dallas Cowboys. The league is coming off a big year, with total NFL revenue topping $23B. That’s a whole lot of money on the turf and opens the door for questions about how to cash in the popular gridiron pastime off the field. NBCUniversal already sold all of its advertising inventory for Super Bowl LX
What’s the spread? Sports betting is now legal in 38 states, as well as Washington, D.C., and Puerto Rico. Missouri is the only new state approved for legal sports betting compared to a year ago, but its launch date of December 1 is well after the opening kickoff. The biggest change this season is the meteoric rise of prediction markets, which have been attracting money that has traditionally gone to sports betting operators.
Investors are taking notice… Shares of FanDuel (FLUT) and DraftKings (DKNG) are each up 40% over the past year, which is impressive and more than double the return of the S&P 500 (SP500). But compare that to the 420% gain for Robinhood Markets (HOOD) during the same period. After democratizing trading and investing, HOOD is eyeing its next expansion by jumping into prediction markets, first by teaming up with Kalshi to offer event contracts and next by going full force into college and pro football.
Go deeper: Unlike sports betting, where the company sets a line, prediction markets take on less risk by offering a liquid marketplace where buyers and sellers actively interact to set the price. Notably, Polymarket was given the green light to go live again in the U.S. just ahead of the NFL season, while Crypto.com and Underdog Sports have also formed a partnership. Perhaps the biggest catch of prediction markets is that they are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, meaning users can make bets across the entire country, even in big states like Texas and California where sports betting is still not legal.
What else is happening…
Gold hits another record high as jobs data boosts rate cut bets.
Trump: Court loss on tariffs could unravel trade deals.
Salesforce reports solid results, but outlook appears mixed.
Vaccine makers respond to criticism of COVID shot success.
ConocoPhillips (COP) to cut workforce by as much as 25%.
Newsmax sues Fox (FOX) for alleged TV news monopoly.
Cracker Barrel (CBRL) logo: Branding isn’t its only problem.
Trump’s sons’ stake in American Bitcoin (ABTC) worth $1.5B.
Macy’s (M) shares rally as turnaround plan shows progress.
Judge rules cuts to Harvard funding are unconstitutional.
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Good morning. Happy Wednesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets leaned to the downside. South Korea, India, Indonesia, and Thailand did well; Japan, China, Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, and the Philippines were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently doing well. Poland, France, Germany, Greece, Finland, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Israel, and Sweden are up; Turkey and Norway are down. Futures in the States point to a positive open for the S&P and a moderate gap up for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: State of the Market —————
The dollar is down. Oil and copper are down. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are up. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Tech win
Shares of Alphabet (GOOGL) are poised to open at record highs, climbing 6.4% in premarket trading to $224.80 on the back of a ruling from U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta. Last summer, Google was found to have created an illegal monopoly in online search and search-tied advertising, kicking off a year-long case to resolve what remedies would open up competition. Among them were requiring Google to sell off its Chrome browser and share data with rivals, ending its investments in artificial intelligence, and stopping to pay smartphone manufacturers to become the default search engine on their devices.
Overreach: With Google proposing much narrower measures and the new DOJ under Trump backing most earlier proposals, the case continued to pick up pace this year. Mehta eventually held closing arguments and signaled less aggressive remedies given the rapid pace of artificial intelligence. Yesterday, he ruled that Google will not have to divest Chrome and can continue making payments for distribution of its products, though it will have to share online search data with competitors and avoid exclusive agreements that unconditionally limit the products of its rivals. ‘Massive win’ for Apple too, says Wedbush
Alphabet plans to appeal the latest ruling, meaning it could be on the way to the Supreme Court, and remedies might be years into the future. “The [DC District] Court did recognize that divesting Chrome and Android would have gone beyond the case’s focus on search distribution, and would have harmed consumers and our partners,” Google wrote in a blog post. “Now the Court has imposed limits on how we distribute Google services, and will require us to share Search data with rivals. We have concerns about how these requirements will impact our users and their privacy, and we’re reviewing the decision closely.”
Ray of hope? Many Big Tech giants have been battling antitrust cases, with pressure coming from both the recent Trump and Biden administrations. Google is even facing another suit over its ad tech business in a separate case brought by the DOJ, which is also going after Apple’s “walled garden” for allegedly suppressing competition and innovation. Meanwhile, the FTC has sued Amazon (AMZN) over “interlocking anticompetitive and unfair strategies” to maintain a monopoly in online retail and marketplace services.
What else is happening…
German grocer Aldi nips at U.S. retailers with expansion plans.
Warren Buffett is ‘disappointed’ with the Kraft Heinz (KHC) split.
Elliott takes $4B stake in PepsiCo (PEP) in push for change.
Starbucks (SBUX) bumps up release of protein cold foam.
Appeals court allows EPA to claw back billions in grant money.
U.S. looking to offload 5% stake in Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac.
Amazon to limit Prime perks; Walmart+ (WMT) boosts benefits.
GenAI startup Anthropic raises $13B, now valued at $183B.
Airline investors could benefit from Spirit (FLYY) bankruptcy.
Global bond selloff deepens, UK yields surge to 1998 high.
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Good morning. Happy Tuesday. Hope you had a good weekend.
The Asian/Pacific markets leaned to the upside. Japan, South Korea, New Zealand, Indonesia, and Singapore did well; China and Hong Kong were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently down big. The UAE is up, but the UK, Poland, France, Germany, Greece, South Africa, Finland, Switzerland, Norway, Hungary, Spain, the Netherlands, Italy, Portugal, Israel, Austria, and Sweden are posting sizeable losses. Futures in the States point to a big gap down open for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: Don’t Panic When the Market Weakens —————
The dollar is up. Oil is down; copper is up. Gold and silver are down. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
A realignment
A push towards a new world order was on full display over the weekend during a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in Tianjin. Taking the spotlight was a get-together between China’s Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin, whose ties have been growing significantly to counter the power and economic strength of the U.S. and its allies. Perhaps more importantly, India’s Narendra Modi joined the leaders hand-in-hand at the summit, putting aside its border strains with China to signal “close cooperation” as trade tensions rise with the United States.
Thought bubble: It’s a big deal that is on the radar of the White House. President Trump’s flagship diplomatic tool and projection of American might has been coercive trade policy, with tariffs and other restrictions being leveled on friends and foes alike. That may work well on countries that are dependent on the U.S. – whether economically, geopolitically or militarily – but for the others, the soft power drive can push them to alternative spheres of influence.
It’s all the more important as Washington turns its attention to the Asia-Pacific region. In terms of size, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is one of the world’s largest regional organizations, covering nearly 60% of the area of Eurasia and about 25% of global GDP. “We must continue to take a clear stand against hegemonism and power politics, and practice true multilateralism,” Xi told the gathering, calling on the SCO to “oppose the Cold War mentality, bloc confrontation and bullying practices.”
Outlook: Partnerships in areas like energy, as well as the establishment of an SCO Development Bank, will go a long way in uniting economies that represent nearly half the world’s population. However, some limitations of the new axis were present, with the Indian delegation keeping their distance from Pakistani representatives and leaving the summit before the “Victory Day” event, which will mark 80 years since the defeat of Imperial Japan in WWII. The military parade aims to project China’s growing global influence, with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un and Iran’s Masoud Pezeshkian also in attendance.
Gold hits record high and silver is also surging
What else is happening…
Bessent sees top court upholding tariffs, backs Fed independence.
Alibaba continues rallying as results signal growing AI lead.
Are wealthy individuals fueling a boom in private credit?
Apollo (APO) to step up sports investing with planned $5B fund.
Nestlé fires CEO over romantic relationship with subordinate.
Meta (META) built flirty chatbots of Taylor Swift without consent.
CDC sets return date for all employees after Aug. 8 shooting.
California regulator delays oil refinery profit cap for five years.
Syria exports first official crude oil cargo in over a decade.
Trump family reportedly notched up to $5B after crypto launch.
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