Good morning. Happy Thursday.
Where has the time gone? Has it really been 10 years since the millennium?
After a horrendous start, 2009 will turn out to be a very good year. The world didn’t come to an end, and solid across-the-board gains will be posted. Granted the unemployment rate is still above 10%, housing is still in the dumps and the US has taken on massive, unmanageable amounts of debt. As the decade winds down, one thing has become clear. Wall St. is no longer reflective of the real economy and vice versa. Wall St. and Main St. are less correlated than ever. Cheap communication lines enable call centers to be located overseas; it’s easier than ever to open offices and plants overseas in cheap labor markets; and the weak dollar benefits those who move of the country. It’s very possible the stock market, which is dominated by large cap companies, can be strong while the real American economy staggers. Accept this.
Here’s the monthly charts. 9 of the last 10 months have closed up. The extent of the move off the low was faster than anyone anticipated. The Nas may be hitting resistance, and the Russell will hit its own soon. The trend is up – you can’t argue that. That’s why for the last 10 months I’ve been bullish while occasionally shifting to neutral. Maybe the move doesn’t make sense; I learned long ago the market doesn’t make sense, and I don’t have to understand it to make money.
headlines at Yahoo Finance
today’s upgrades/downgrades
this week’s Earnings Reports
this week’s Economic Numbers
0 thoughts on “Before the Open (Dec 31)”
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Jason,
It’s my contention that common sense eventually wins out. However, there is no reason not to be benefitting from this rise, whether it’s rational or not. It can go on for a long, long time. We just have to be ready to unload when the time is right, although it will be hard to do, given that all dips get bought…………….until they don’t.
Exactly…and we may unload and then two weeks later play longs again. Wall St. is not a mystery I’m trying to solve…it’s a just a vehicle to make money…and I don’t have to completely understand it to accomplish the mission.