Good morning. Happy Friday.
Several Asian/Pacific markets were still closed today. The ones that were open gained ground. Europe is currently mostly up – gains are small. Prior to the jobs report, futures in the US were flat.
The employment numbers are out. Here they are:
unemployment rate: 9.0% (vs 9.4%)
nonfarm payrolls: up 36K (vs 140K estimate)
private payrolls: (will be posted when I find the number)
average workweek: (will be posted when I find the number)
hourly earnings: (will be posted when I find the number)
As always it’s not the numbers that are importat but the market’s reaction to them. Right now the overall reaction is negative, but futures aren’t exactly selling off hard. The 9% unemploymet rate is a nice headline, but it’s a big concern that only 36K jobs were created. That’s not even enough to keep up with the population growth.
I don’t have much to add to what I’ve stated several times this week. The trend is up..there are a few warning signs, but the market doesn’t seem to care. Wall St. has taken the Egypt situation in stride and hasn’t been bothered by news here in the States either. Whether it makes sense or not, it’s onward and upward.
I am long, but I’m staying on my toes. I did massive research last night and was pleasantly suprised by the number off good looking charts. One of these days the market will actually pull back, but it’s impossible to say when it’ll happen. Ride the uptrend for everything it’s worth, and have an exit strategy. More after the open.
headlines at Yahoo Finance
today’s upgrades/downgrades
this week’s Earnings Reports
this week’s Economic Numbers
0 thoughts on “Before the Open (Feb 4)”
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It’s funny what the spin doctors are saying about the nonfarm payrolls:
‘It was less than expected, but…we are moving in the right direction’
C’mon, man. Does a bear shit in the woods? HW
Correction: Does a bear scat in the woods? Spin it, whip it, mash it, it still boils down to what you’re gonna do with it.
Just a reminder:
Look at the RUT weekly chart starting on the week of 5/04/09 for 4 weeks and then compare it the current 4 week pattern. This is predicting a F-U rally next week followed by a multi-week slide.
CSCO is probably the catalyst for the rise. All Chambers has to say is, “gee, I guess things aren’t as bad as I thought in November. We did much better than anticipated.”
Of course, it’s all a probability. But I look at that pattern and I ask, “what is the probability of 4 weeks of candle bar patterns looking like *that* and matching up again right now, higher in the same rise?”
This is eye opening, the Jan Employment is a constructed figure and it demonstates that BLS has more respect for its construction rules than common sense. The drop in % unemployed is Jobs just a fluke, but it destroys the credibility of the government reports – again. The ADP estimate is more likely revealing of the trend. Employment is up a little, but vastly below the 250,000/mo we need to just break even. This can not continue, on can it??
Will the market continue up – maybe – the liquidity is still there, thanks Ben, and it must go somewhere, but as all research has shown more liquidity leads to bidding up prices without respect to the rewards available from the assets – we playing for appreciation not return.
Money gets invested inspite of its marginal earnings prospection. At some point the series fails and the market falls – hard maybe.
use stops and play with other peoples money. I use my wife’s money .
Hey gang. My buddy Neal Weintraub went to an AA meeting
last night and became humble all of a sudden. You soon realize
just how lucky we all are, and that Jason provides us a way
to share commentary on a daily basis via his website. Amen.
Looks like we are in some sort of a ’rounding top’
process with many of my charts looking that way. HW
Amazing Grace! You couldn’t even sing it right
if you were doing Karaoke at the Playboy Club
in Chicago. And Uncle Hugh was lip synching
all the verses, ‘I was blind, but now I see!’