Before the Open (Feb 24)

Good morning. Happy Thursday.
The Asian/Pacific markets closed mostly down – there were several 1% losers. Europe is currently mostly down – the German and Swiss markets are down more than 1%. Futures here in the States point towards a gap down which will open the indexes near yesterday’s lows.
Due to the situation in Libya, oil output has been cut, and oil prices have surged. A high oil price based on increased demand isn’t a bad thing (although it eventually chokes off the economy that is supporting it), but a high oil price based on a lack of supply is nothing more than an unwanted tax on businesses and consumers around the world.
There’s no question the last two days have been the worst since last August and have pulled some indicators to their lowest level since August. The number of S&P 1500 stocks trading above their 10-day MA is at its lowest level since Aug 24. The number above their 20-day is at its lowest since Aug 31. The number making 10-day highs and 10-day lows is at their lowest and highest readings (respectively) since Aug too. The last two days has been the first time since Sept 22nd and 23rd there has been back-to-back days of more than 1000 decliners (at the S&P 1500)
Generally speaking the longer term charts still look great – it takes more than 2 days of selling to completely destroy a rock solid trend. But short term things are pretty bad.
Here’s the 60-min S&P chart. Two days have wiped out two weeks worth of gains. In my opinion, breaking the support trendline doesn’t automatically mean the uptrend is over and a new downtrend underway. The market isn’t that exact; it’s not that precise. Technical damage has been done, and I don’t want to hold long unless a stock is obviously benefiting from the situation overseas. For my personal trading, I’m content to stick with the inverse ETFs (TZA and BGZ) and let things settle out. More after the open.

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today’s upgrades/downgrades
this week’s Earnings Reports
this week’s Economic Numbers