Good morning. Happy Tuesday. Happy Fed Day. It’s not a happy day for those who are long any market anywhere in the world.
Every index in Asia/Pacific and Europe closed down or is down, and most are down several %. Futures here in the States point towards a huge gap down open for the cash market.
For a while there the market was moving down in slow motion. It took 3 weeks for the S&P to move from 1300 to 1340 and then 3 more weeks to move back down to 1300. Tops tend to be rounded and drawn out; they frustrate everyone. Hence why it took about the same amount of time to go up and come back down. But once the ball starts rolling, that’s when weeks or even months of gains can be wiped out in a short period of time.
Right now everything is about Japan. The market took the earthquake in stride (it moved up last Friday), but with news of their nuclear crisis and such, traders are selling first and asking questions second. Japan itself is down over 20% in just a couple days.
Today is an FOMC day, but does it really matter? The Fed rarely does anything that induces more than a short-term hiccup anyways, so I’m expecting more of the same. If anything, the situation in Japan allows the Fed to keep rates low for a longer period of time, and as June rolls around we’ll find out if there’ll be QEIII.
Strap on your seat belts, it’s gonna be a wild ride. The Fed doesn’t matter. Options expiration doesn’t matter. News out of Japan rules right now. More after the open.
headlines at Yahoo Finance
today’s upgrades/downgrades
this week’s Earnings Reports
this week’s Economic Numbers
0 thoughts on “Before the Open (Mar 15)”
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This Japan event maybe the trigger to let all of the air out of the rally.
Watch out confusing pauses with bottoms.
For a while, the bonds and USD will do well, then be careful.
The Fed will do nothing but lament the Quake and assure us that all is going well—NOT. This can not be ignored, Traders have to know the FED is likely facing unknown times – if it lets the QE end there are over 500 commercial banks that may go under. Further, the big five banks still have three who are comatose. The Fed matters: so don’t let their inaction lull you to sleep.
Day trading is a bitch. You almost have to know at the
end of every day how the market is going to react on
the following day. Henceforth, I’ve been going into
cash at the end of every day. Then, using the technique
‘scalping the minis’ with the assistance of the
1,5 & 10 minute charts, I try to make a few bucks. HW
today is so boring–the real action started when japan opened this morn my time–ur nite–japan fell 16% making a total of 20% in 2 days—spx fell to 1258 which is support for this next few days untill the bigboys roll over opts to 1300–must have been lots of opts wrote from here to 12000—1300 spx
but we have gaped down to a new range and that range wont hold as the big instos are hedge short–they know the fed is just a big ponsi and doesnt control the world
as a funnymentalist i can tell u that fundamentals are only a smoke screan for t/a that the bigboys create
12000 was a created event for no logical reason but for making money–it is now easier to make money by going down
im just waiting to load up short but that may not happen till tomorrow
the dax and ftse were great on the down side to day–but now having a bit of a push up to handle their opts
derivitives rule the world –shares are just pawns
the fed is a ponsi for the banks
this is a world market not just a usa one