Before the Open (Apr 12)

Posted on by Jason Leavitt

Good morning. Happy Tuesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets closed mostly down; there were several 1% losers. Europe is currently down across-the-board; almost every index is down at least 1%. Futures here in the States point towards a pretty good sized gap down for the cash market.

The market has dropped 3 straight days…we haven’t had a 4-day losing streak since November.
The indexes are in consolidation mode, but charts of individual stocks are not holding up as well. Perhaps there’s some funny math going on with the indexes…they actually don’t seem representative of what’s going on.
The market feels fragile here. Over the last two weeks we’ve had several gap ups which got sold into. At some point the bulls are going to get frustrated. They wake up many mornings happy to see their accounts up only to see the gains wiped out during the day.
Japan raised its atomic alert rating to the highest possible matching Chernobyl. This no doubt is responsible the worldwide losses.
I’m going to still argue the overall trend is up, but as I stated over the weekend in the Index Report, the near term is much less clear. More after the open.
headlines at Yahoo Finance
today’s upgrades/downgrades
this week’s Earnings Reports
this week’s Economic Numbers

0 thoughts on “Before the Open (Apr 12)”

  1. The NFIB report shows more the state of the economy: it is declining but employment up .71% all else negative. Leading indicator.
    The cloud of no QE2 hovers over all. Is there life after QE2? Yes, but do we want it?
    The Nas Comp is behaving like it knows something but hates to say it. Slow down big time.
    The Trade numbers were upsetting on prices paid, up due to fuel. CPI must rise. Margins fall.
    The storm waiting to break is the Debt limit: Without clear agreement to reduce spending the dollar dives (taking your net worth with it). And with agreements to cut spending the money injected by government falls and hurts final demand. Summer of our Discontent?

  2. As long as POMO remains active in the market place
    armageddon is on the back burner….why? Because
    things are working in the Fed’s favor right now and;
    2. the bulls don’t want to get sucked into the bear trap.
    This is quite obvious to me because the Dow only
    has 30 stocks and is very, very easy to manipulate
    the Dow by let’s say buying heavy into IBM, whatever.
    Oh yeah, about 3 weeks ago IBM gapped up by a few
    points around 3pm and all the traders were just
    astonished….duuhh…how the hell did that happen?

  4. look at the ftse –its past S5 and still going south—the ftse is the dji father
    the dji is full of bull retailers created by the press ,which is owned by the big boys
    the big boy insto index is the spx
    from now on the rest of day may be modestly up for opts ex fri after the bullish retailers are take call off
    go the manipulation –its great
    the crash starts fri –untill we get to zero

  7. Sometimes it’s good to take a step back and look at longer time frames. The “Kid With A Ruler” says that if you draw a trend line from the SPX March ’09 low through the July-Sept ’10 lows it connects with the recent Mar low arounf the 1250 area. The 50 day EMA looks like it will be tested on this weakness. Sooo, I conclude that it will take a few closes below the long term trendline and a breach of 1250 along with a failed retest of that trendline from below before I cancel my order for Neal’s T-Shirts. More sideways above 1250 could be an evolving triangle, or whatever. There’s still some positive time cycles (or so I’m told) but that will run out in a few months too. I’m just glad I’m not a day trader.

  8. All of the other websites that I follow seem to be stuck in
    bull mode. This might have something to do with the seductive
    effective that the Fed is having over everybody. But, until I
    see a plethora of sell trades coming through on these websites
    I would have to say that the general direction is still up.
    Ps. My blow up doll has a limited vocabulary. She does not
    understand the word plethora. HW

  9. Howard–LOL–i mite change my forcast to today–insto selling doesnt like like its stoped yet–just hopeing—im currently flat after tick extream
    Pete,following Jasons mind set article,we have all got to know what we are good for–
    i may not be good for much ,but trading the indexes on 100 to 1 margin,big amounts–in /out–
    keeps me alive and interested

  11. Aussie JS – wasn’t meant to be a slam on day traders. I tried it when I was much younger and found it wasn’t for me emotionally or financially. I agree with Neal on on his attitude about day trading based on my experience. The boys & girls on the floor may be able to do it but the odds don’t favor it otherwise. But that’s just my opinon. To each his own and the best to you!
    By the way, I’m noticing the SPX is holding important near term support so far – but for how long?

  13. just to add to that–i have about 20 different trading plans and mind sets required for all types of markets–so i can swing or possition trade if i feel the market is right for that

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