Before the Open (Jul 11)

Posted on by Jason Leavitt

Good morning. Happy Monday. Hope you had a nice weekend.
The Asian/Pacific markets closed mostly down; Australia, Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea lost more than 1%. Europe is getting crushed. Almost every index is down at least 1% and a couple are down 2%. Futures here in the States are getting hit hard. It’s going to be an ugly open.
The dollar is up almost 1%.
I don’t have anything to add to the comments I made in my weekend report. The market is ridiculously overbought and badly in need of a rest. I stated numerous times towards the end of last week I had no interest in entering new positions. The indexes had gone too far too fast, and many individual stocks were in unsustainable vertical moves. Managing what I had while otherwise sitting and waiting has been the call I’ve been making for several days.
Now we’re going to get a lot of selling pressure at the open which of course doesn’t bother me even a little bit because it’s exactly what the market needed.
Headlines this morning blame economic worries on the market’s permarket weakness. Whatever. The market didn’t go vertical because it was believed the economy was getting better. The sheep will continue to be led to slaughter.
I’m staying in “wait and see” mode and am still in no hurry to do anything. Let’s see what kind of intensity a pullback has. More after the open.
headlines at Yahoo Finance
today’s upgrades/downgrades
yesterday’s sector performance
this week’s Earnings
this week’s Economic Numbers

0 thoughts on “Before the Open (Jul 11)”

  1. now if u had have bought on leverage,would u still fell like holding
    imo this is a 1930’s spike style LH
    we’ll see —i dont mind if it goes higher atm –i need to load up again
    see dax/ftse –great shorts today–out now and need some bulls

  3. I agreed with Jason last week that the structure and intensity (or lack thereof)of a sell off would determine if SPX has further to go to upward eventually or the MAY highs ended the 2+ yr bull market.
    For those with an Elliott Wave bent, if we get a 3 wave pattern down holding above 1258,the bullish “tiangle” will remain alive. But, a 5 wave decline below 1258 would imply at least a deeper correction at minimum and the bearish “Head&Shoulder” pattern in play targeting the 1150 area. I note that the weekly candlestick appeared to be a “spinning top” that suggested “indecision” between bulls & bears and/or a change in direction of the trend.
    Since I’m not a day trader (and good luck to you who are),I’m with Jason – wait & watch!

  8. the govt and fed are run by the big banks not the mutual pension funds of joe six pack
    daytraders do have a edge the tick chart –piviots–and insto money flow index that tells us if hedgies are accumulating or distributing
    the rich always get richer–we are greedy–its part of our daily mind set pschy

  9. the dax /ftse have given us a false break high test–usa to follow
    imo this is not a trending market but a up down ect topping market
    weather its a jaws of death broadening truncated –h/s –or triangle
    who cares —-ITS A DAYTRADERS MARKET

  11. As we approach the noon hour (EDT, this morning’s action is inconclusive from a non-daytrading perspective, but this afternoon should help clear things up a bit. For those with a longer term perspective, I’ve noticed that the 80 week simple moving average plotted on the weekly chart (I’m using using StockCharts) of $SPX, $INDU, $RUT, NDX, $NYA seems to be particularly important – perhaps more so than the trendline plotted from the MAR’09 low. Take a look and see what you think.

    1. Following Pete’s instructions, I set up a weekly chart on the IWM.
      My conclusion is we would have to experience some sort of a mini-
      crash or 5 down days in a row to touch the 80 day SMA on the weekly.
      But I do agree with him that we should wait until the end of day
      before coming to any conclusions. And of course, tomorrow is the
      one and only Leavitt Brother’s ‘turn around Tuesday’ HW

      1. Howard – I don’t want to confuse anyone so I’m assuming you meant to write 80 WEEK (not 80 day)SMA in $SPX. I’m watching the 80 week SMA from a LONGER term perspective. Nearer term, the 13, 20 & 50 DAILY EXPOENTIAL moving averages should be important support, i.e. 1310-1320. Below that, I’m watching 1295-1300. If & when we get to those levels it will be enliightening as to how we got there (impulsively or more orderly) – as Jason mentioned last week.

  13. People know who Maggie is. I’ve shared her with a number of people already.
    In fact the hardest part is trying to clean her up without busting her wide open.

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