Before the Open (Aug 15)

Posted on by Jason Leavitt

Good morning. Happy Monday. Hope you had a nice weekend.
The Asian/Pacific markets closed up across the board. Hong Kong rallied over 3%; Australia and Taiwan moved up more than 2%; several others gained more than 1%. Europe is currently posting across-the-board gains. Austria, Norway and Switzerland are leading the way. Futures here in the States point towards a gap up for the cash market.

I don’t have anything to add to the report I wrote over the weekend. Last week was a wild one…S&P down 50 one day and up 50 the next. Huge volatility, huge movement, no trend. It was great for day trading but not so good for swing trading.
In most cases the charts have completely broken down. Longer term trendlines have been taken out, so my bias is now to the downside. But I’m not short any more. I’m watching and want the market to make its next move because it’s close to no-man’s land. From the current level, if the market drifts up on light volume or just rolls over here, I’ll initiate new shorts. But if the market continues up with solid volume and some energy behind the move or if the market drifts back on light volume, I’ll look to buy a dip. The indexes are somewhat in the middle and need to show their cards. I think the next couple days could go a long way hinting at the movement for the rest of the week. More afer the open.
headlines at Yahoo Finance
today’s upgrades/downgrades
yesterday’s sector performance
this week’s Earnings
this week’s Economic Numbers

0 thoughts on “Before the Open (Aug 15)”

  2. hey aussie. i was a bit concerned about your comments on friday. “what your are about to experience in europe is beyond belief” as i live in europe (uk) can you give me some insight? and where’s a safe haven for my cash?
    cheers
    mac

    1. will germany be willing to bail out all of europe inc uk which is bankrupt with debt
      merv king says ecb has gone as far as it can
      talk now of the euro bond and massive quant easying world wide in a joint effort
      are they mad–it would led to a world wide financial and currency colaps
      pollitically i dont think they have the will to fix the problem
      joint meating between germany /france should disappoint
      usa looks like its in election mode or it may have offered to bail out europe with rubber usd’s
      this is capitallisum –boom/bust–we had the boom why cant we bust

  4. Bob has been on hollidays till the 15th
    i want to phone him as i have a few questions re my indicator settings on esignal
    i will try him after close

  5. is that for water skiing or snow
    –i live at the sea front on the great barrier reaf
    tropical north
    great for water skiing–especially behind a marlin
    AussieJAY may be interested to–he is on the gold coast
    or MIKE O from down south
    we only have one snow ski center in oz –the snowy mountains

  7. this is a battle between Neal and the world
    well should i say investor mentality and traders
    to a investor the world is still rosy and all is well and trend still up–eem
    u know the long only mutuals that cant afford to see no wrong
    BUT this sell off from may 2nd was investors taking profits
    SO THEY WANT ANOTHER CRACK AT THE CAKE DO THEY
    the investor selling has stoped but still in distribution mode
    IF we get to 12000 the traders may have something to say if we go higher
    WHEN IS UR LABOR DAY –SEPT..?
    there was a nice scalp i could have had just now,but after last week im all exhausted
    opts ex this frid could have a bearing as with all the massive retailer puts the market makers–insto banks cant afford to pay out on all the shorts

  8. It seems the consensus of opinion is that the MAY high in the major indexes marked the top of the 2+ yr rally from MAR’09. We all have our opinons about where this short term rally goes and I think Jason has the right analytic perspective. I seem to be a bit more bearish in that I don’t see Neal’s DOW 12,000 or 13,000 being reached. Perhaps if we had made a lower low first, I would agree.
    I do agree that the time frame to reach those levels will close by Labor Day. This is a rally to let play out. I’d only add new high dividend stock positions after we see new lows and concentrate on using this rally to liquidate weak stocks and fully hedge long term positions. On technical(sorry, Neal)confirmation that we’re resuming the downtrend, tradeable aggressive short positions make sense to me. All of this being said from a longer term perspective, of course.

    1. Pete–could today be the day spx 1200 and sideways to opts ex
      it couldnt be that simple could it
      we could still go down and test the lows for a marginall low and struggle back up
      i like the wiggles –a oz singing group for children

  10. One last thought for the day (Neal – ignore this!). Shorter term MAs (13, 20, 50 & 200 day)have turned down. Jason’s 20 month (my 80 week)SMA has falttened out at just above SPX 1200 and DOW 11,300. I really think it’s significant & worth observing how the SPX & DOW react to this SMA on a closing weekly basis between now & Labor Day. If we can get above it on a closing basis, then maybe Neal’s targets or DOW 12,000 & 13,000 may be realistic. For what it’s worth, I think SPX 1200-1220 and Dow 11,400-11,600 (on an intraday basis) will be very difficult resistance to overcome. A failure at those levels with technical confirmation may turn out to be good shorting opportunity for a swing or longer term trade, in my opinion.

  11. no neal i live in the uk. but i ski in the alps in france, im not sure your ski idea will take off as its hard enough trying to ski when your looking forwards let alone behind me. maybe a good idea when im sitting down at the bar and seeing if there are any girls behind me

  16. The wealthy investors you know didn’t become wealthy by investing. They became wealthy in some other fashion and then turned to investing as a way to preserve or slowly grow their wealth.

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