Before the Open (Sep 26)

Good morning. Happy Monday. Hope you had a nice weekend.
The Asian/Pacific markets closed down across the board. Indonesia lost more than 3%; Malaysia, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan lost more than 2%. Europe is currently up across the board. Germany is up more than 3%; Austria, France, Amsterdam and Switzerland are up more than 2%. Futures here in the States point towards a relatively big gap up for the cash market.

I don’t have anything to add to my weekend comments. If you missed the video I posted yesterday, go here.
The trend is down, and the longer term indicators support this claim. But today is a Monday. Wall St. often can be forgetful, so even though things were pretty bad last week, the market doesn’t have to continue the weakness in the near term. This isn’t an outrageous statement. How many times has the market been super strong or weak one day and the exact opposite the next? Plus this Friday is the end of the month and quarter. Who knows? Maybe the indexes get propped up this week. Fine by me. We’ll get to short at higher levels.
I heard rumors at the end of last week and over the weekend a Greece default was imminent. Perhaps this is why futures are up so much – they didn’t default.
Check out the video posted above. I’ll have more to say after the open.
headlines at Yahoo Finance
today’s upgrades/downgrades
this week’s Earnings
this week’s Economic Numbers

0 thoughts on “Before the Open (Sep 26)

  1. Hi Aussie JS: I did bail out of my ZSL silver short position in the
    Monday morning pre-market today with a $US 1200.00 dollar profit.
    This more or less makes up for the debacle from last week and
    Jason’s 2nd coming of Christ. Bobaroo, if you are listening
    to all of this I woke up this morning with more than just an
    appetite for the stock market. I am 100% flat at the moment.

  2. Hi Jason,
    Have not heard back from you since I last emailed.
    Love your work.
    My website is being totally updated to relate exclusively to the US markets rather than incorporating the Australian.
    I follow your comments as they are so relevant to our markets even thought it is amusing to often watch what our market does after the evening session when yours have either escalated or plummeted.
    I can see nothing but downside from here personally.
    I’d love to receive your comments as previously requested.
    Elizabeth.
    http://www.theecmethod.com
    We’ve picked up almost 3000 points profit on the DOW in less than 3 months and would love to combine our work with yours.

      1. Yes Howard I know BobN personally, am part of his email group and follow his work daily. We have probably been part of the same trading programme/platform since basically the date of it’s commencment – 10-12 years ago.
        I notice you recently trialled our website but missed the last 297 profit on the DOW.
        I love Jason’s work – it gives me such insight regarding option expiry timing in particular. He is so precise and insightful. I realize it really pertains to the US market but is very insightful to follow regarding the Australian markets.
        My brother who lives in New York and works on Wall Street will be taking over the marketing arm of our business. I didn’t realize you were a NY’er.
        I do apologise Jason if I have written out of hand here.
        Cheers,
        Elizabeth
        Elizabeth
        This is not the place to converse because it is Jason’s platform but if you want further info. regarding us please go back to the website and I’ll be pleased to answer any queries.
        We are about to launch our alerts for the Heng Seng in the next little while which we are looking forward to.
        My brother will be taking care of the US side of the site as he works on Wall Street.
        Cheers and I hope I have not offended you Jason.
        Elizabeth
        Apologies to Jason for the cross ref. between Howard and me regarding the Australian connection.
        Elizabeth

  3. I always find Jason’s big picture, long term analysis interesting as well as informative from my longer term perspective. This weekend’s monthly SPX chart with Bollinger Bands really tells the bear market story. Thanks for the report!
    I’m looking for a rally into the SPX 1155-1180 area (with particular interest in the gap area around 1167) as a place to establish swing & longer term short positions. From an EW perpsective, the rally from 1114 is definitely corrective. The daily MACD has experienced a negative crossover, confirming a resumption of the downtrend. My only concern here is the exremely contrarian bearish sentiment, but I’m thinking it may not manifest itself until we see lower prices around Jason’s SPX 1000 downside target. This should prove to be a low risk/high reward set up on the bear side. The corrective longer term pattern from the AUG low should be formidable long term resistance in the future – assuming we see the AUG low taken out. Once the 20 month/80 week SMA turns down, that should prove to be the benchmark resistance number to watch longer term, in my opinion.

  4. Since about 1PM on FRI, The SPX has been finding support around the 1129-1130 area and is being tested this AM. This is becoming an area to watch, as is the 1144 area on any rally. A break below 1129 which then begins to become intra day resistance will lead me to think today’s high at 1148 may have ended this rally attempt and I’ll not see my 1155-1180 upside target, in which case I would look for any opportunity to sell at or around 1129.

    1. PeteM: don’t start double guessing your work. If you are
      looking at 1167 short term it will happen either today
      or tomorrow, ‘turn around Tuesday’ HW

  5. One would have to be Superman in order day trade 1129 to 1149.
    Actually, with the proverbial words of wisdom from PeteM
    I am actually getting away from day trading and using
    the 30min and 60min charts to swing with. It seems to me
    that when the new norm is 300 to 400 Dow points per day
    you don’t want to get blown out of the water just because
    you were getting a ‘buy’ signal or a ‘sell’ signal on
    a 15min chart. One will do much better perhaps, when
    the 30min and 60min charts are in synch with each other.

  6. it will be interesting to see how usa does now europes irrational exhuberance is over for the day
    it was a wild ride and following the euro,which i think is being heavily controled
    we are still in the HOPE stage of the markets–wave 2 or wave 2 of 3 –dont know which
    reality is starting to hit that europe just has to much debt to servive and china/usa cant help
    time however is starting to run out for the bears and we may just morf in to whole lot of little zombies
    we came close to Pete’s spx 1155

  7. europe wants us to just take their guarante for it all is well ,without having to put up any money—banks and soverigns are bankrupt inc germany,but no one will pull the plug
    its going to have to be the markets that pull the plug,but im loosing heart that they have the willingness to
    if this is a third wave we should be going down–i want to see support broken and a impulsive panic————–NOW

    1. AussieJS – I’m looking at NDX as well as the S&P sector ETFs. Downside gaps on the daily charts remain unfilled and an over all “heavy” look are making me think “NOW” is close at hand. The daily MACDs all seem to have crossed over to the downside. The SPX is bouncing between and around your bearish H&S neckline and my shorter term bullish H&S neckline. Having said that, I still believe we in a larger 3 wave pattern down from the MAY high and we may not get an impulsive 3rd of a 3rd panic type move down of a larger 5 wave sequence.
      The fact that we’re holding up in spite of of all the negative news leads me to think we work down to Jason’s SPX 1000 area and then get a rally back to this area of congestion since AUG -all part of a grind down into late 2012 to the 850 area +/- 50 pts.

  8. PeteM
    Look at the japan N225 Index after the 1990 crash and the 1938 usa –zombie meanderings down–slow downward chanells—thats my fear
    hard for myself to trade longer term on cfds,with margin and leverage—am i doomed to being a daytrader–im getting a bit sea sick
    i need the larger impulsive waves to cherp me up
    so far i see only one impulsive wave–july 25th to aug 8thish–all the rest is sideways time phase corrective stuff–daytrader stuff that some say chopp and wont trade
    yes i am getting disheartened—so maybe a impulsive is at hand

    1. AussieJS – there are many markets to trade so keep an eye on opprotunities as they arise elsewhere. I focus on the financials because of my clients but there are (or will be) many opprtunites in the commodites that make up the CRB Index, in my opinion.

  9. Congrats Howard. The SPX has just entered the 1155 mark. I am sometimes too impuslive and like PeteM would have entered a short position too early but waited as you suggested. I will wait for the 1167 mark which will probably be tomorrow for my short. However I will keep an eye on the Europe EIB plan as the smokey in the woodpile. It could be buy on the rumour and sell on the fact. Once again well done Howard

  10. It has been said that gaps are usually filled. Shaero, I plan to join you “in the gap” with 1/3 of my longer term position position and fill in the remainder on signs of a reversal anywhere in this gap area.

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