Before the Open (Dec 13)

Posted on by Jason Leavitt

Good morning. Happy Tuesday. Happy Fed Day.
The Asian/Pacific markets closed mostly down. Australia, China, Japan and South Korea dropped more than 1%. Europe is currently up across the board. Stockholm is up 1.6%. Otherwise there are no other 1% winners. Futures here in the States point towards a moderate gap up open for the cash market.

After last Thursday the charts were not looking so great. There were very few good, tradeable set ups. In one day, Friday, that changed. As of Friday’s close we had numerous decent looking charts. This changed again yesterday when most of those charts suffered enough damage to no longer be considered tradeable in the near term. I can’t remember a time when the market was so irradic, so inconsistent. It’s a little frustrating. It’s been about 6 weeks since we’ve gotten a consistent flow of tradeable set ups that had a shelf life of more than a day or two. Oh well. Things will get better. We just have to be patient. The name of the game the last month has been preserving capital.
We have an FOMC meeting today. I’m not expecting any fireworks. In fact I’m not expecting anything. The situation in Europe is so dominant, nobody is talking about the Fed. They’ve already said rates will be held down for a long time, and how much can they tinker with their statement from meetint to meeting?
Don’t over trade. Don’t churn your account. Your a baseball hitter, and if the pitcher doesn’t give you a good pitch to hit, stand there with the bat on your shoulder. More after the open.
headlines at Yahoo Finance
headlines at MarketWatch
today’s upgrades/downgrades
this week’s Earnings
this week’s Economic Numbers

0 thoughts on “Before the Open (Dec 13)”

  1. From an EW perspective (IMO), the higher probability is that yesterday marked the end of of a corrective pattern completing either wave 1 or wave b. If that’s the case, we’re in a smaller 5 wave upwards pattern which may be completing this AM to be followed by a pullback, perhaps this PM. The less bullish EW count (and lower probability, IMO) is that this intraday rally is part of an uncompleted complex corrective pattern with a retest of 1225 or perhaps lower to 1200.
    I’m looking for resistance at SPX 1252ish and signs of a reversal for a pullback to 1236-1242.

  3. The ease & quickness with which this down move is occurring makes me want to reconsider the idea that we’ve seen the completion of wave 2 (or wave b), especially if we break below today’s open and start trading below it. In that case, SPX 1220-1225 or lower increases in probability, IMO.
    If there’s a bounce that finds resistance around 1244-1246, I’d sell on a reversal and look for a test of today’s open.

  4. We seem to have had an impulsive move down to today’s low (a .618 retrace so far from yesterday’s low to today’s high) so a bounce is due. If we get it now, the Fibo resistance from today’s high to low is in the 1242ish -1245ish area and I’d sell a reversal in that area.

  8. If yesterday’s SPX 1227 low is broken on this retest, the Fibo support levels are 1225 (.382), 1213ish (.500) & 1200 (.618)- for retracement of the 1158-1266 rally. The mid point of the daily Bollinger Band is 1224 & the 50 day EMA is 1225. Sooo, a break of, and trading below, 1225 argues for at least 1213 down to 1200, IMO. But first, I’ll be looking for bullish divergence on a break below yesterday’s 1227 low on the hourly indicators for signs that 1225 could hold.

  12. I’m watching to see if 1225 now proves to be resistance. If it does, I’ll be looking for 1213 & 1200 Fibo numbers as targets. But, I’m tempted to cover my short position before the close.

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