Good morning. Happy Tuesday. Hope you enjoyed your extra day off.
The Asian/Pacific markets closed up across the board. China rallied 4.2%, Hong Kong 3.2%, Singapore 2.2%, Australia, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan more than 1%. Europe is currently up across the board. Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Amsterdam and Stockholm are up more than 1%. Futures here in the States point towards a moderate gap up open for the cash market.
The dollar is down. Oil and copper are up. Gold and silver are up.
The market continues to chug along. The S&P has moved up 15 of the last 20 days and 22 of the last 33. The individual up days have not all been playable because some gains took place in the form of a gap, but those gaps held. Every dip is getting bought. Every little gap down is getting bought. I sense the bulls are getting a little complacent.
Over the weekend I pointed out a few indicators which are starting to diverge from the price action. Such indicators do not tell us a pullback is imminent, but they do tell us some selling pressure will likely take place in the next week or so if they don’t get invalidated.
Many of the indexes are forming bearish wedges. The price action is creeping up but getting squeezed by converging trendlines. If these patterns are not invalidated soon, they’re likely to lead to a correction – not a big sell-off, just a correction that allows the charts to re-set for the next leg up.
The S&P closed last Friday at 1289. My downside targets are 1270, 1250 and 1200. My upside target is 1350.
Have a good day and week. I consider the holiday season to officially be over. Things should pick up now. The ranges should expand, and volume should increase. After today’s close I’ll be writing my monthly put/call open-interest report.
headlines at Yahoo Finance
headlines at MarketWatch
today’s upgrades/downgrades
this week’s Earnings
this week’s Economic Numbers
0 thoughts on “Before the Open (Jan 17)”
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Should be an interesting week, maybe interesting day.
Regardless and as usual its a stock pickers market. Time to goose the high short interest plays 😉
Holidays over, back to work. Geez, you’re no fun.
the spx-dji-ndx-rut—-ftse/dax have all reached levels that could be a top
depends do we get a sell off
i doubt 1350 spx for opts ex fri
Looking at SPX hourly chart, we appear to be in a 3rd wave up of larger wave 3 of C. If that’s the case, maybe we see 1310ish before a healthy pullback (wave 4 of ending dagaonal C wave)and a final move up to 1325+/- 5 SPX pts to complete wave 5 of diagonal wave C.
The more bullish case is that we’re seeing an impulsive 5 wave move up (not an ending diagonal)that’s targeting 1370 (MAY high). To me, I think 1325 would create a lot of bearish divergences while cleaning out the perma bear shorts, but you never know in the land of OZ, do you?
Good thing I wasn’t feeling lucky on Friday.
totally dead boring
what a raging bull
ah..its a german merkel bull
no its a earnings reporting bad bull
imo its all bull
gold and silver are in the completion stage of falling wedges, after which they should surge to new highs. qqq has at least a quadruple top just under 60. since there is no such topping formation, it should break out and rally at least 10 points. seems like the reflation trade is back on after some major portfolio adjustments in december.
Yup time to take more profits
Vix looks to be putting a triple bottom
Either pullback or reversal week, everyone seems to be expecting the later….so…????
Does the opening gap need filling on the major indices?
Here’s something that came up during a client meeting today. The 10 & 30 yr Treasury rates usually go up (risk on) when the stock market rallies. Yet, I’ve noticed lately that rates have continued to fall in Jan while the stock market rallies. Whaddup wit dat?
Could it be that the bond market sees a recession already taking hold based on leading economic indicators while the stock market buys the kool aid of U.S. economic expansion based on coincident/laggging indicators? I’ll put my money on the bond boys.
i have the same question as you and the same choice as you in terms of which market to trust (bonds). but bonds have rallied together with stocks for 15 years beginning in mid 1980s. they did so again since the markets bottomed in 2009. so the relationship is not as clearcut as shoeshine boys in grand central know. add in qe and until the day of reckoning comes, bonds become part of reflation trade as well.
That is the group thought, all gaps must close.
It seems most times that is the case, other times not.
Closing my TVIX and DUST regardless. Staying net long, pushing my luck, mostly in cash looking both ways. Earnings opx week, could be messy…
Good luck
Regarding bond equities $ and other inter-market relationships –
These seem to come and go. In the past few years bonds and $ seem to rise with falling equities. In the old days bonds and equities used to rise together. Perhaps it is a vote of confidence in the US recovery. Just another element to add to EWT GANN and other forms of mental fornication ;).
Trading was never meant to be easy nor logical imho.
I had interesting chat with my doctor this weekend, he is also an active investor / sorta trader.
R N Elliot dies of a parasite, an amoeba that enters through the gut while he was stationed in Nicaragua. In later stages this parasite invades all the organs including the brain and can in some cases cause dementia or fits of seeming genius and delusions…..food for thought.
today was mid month inflows. WS made sure joe six pack paid top dollar for his s#it sandwich. imho