Before the Open (Feb 1)

Posted on by Jason Leavitt

Good morning. Happy Wednesday. Happy February.
The Asian/Pacific markets closed mixed. China dropped 1.1% – it was the only 1% mover. Europe is currently up across the board. Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Amsterdam, Stockholm, Switzerland and London are each posting solid gains. Futures here in the States point towards a moderate gap up open for the cash market.
The dollar is down. Oil and copper are up. Gold and silver are up.
The market hasn’t done much the last two weeks. As of yesterday’s close the S&P is unchanged since Jan 19, and as of today’s open it’ll be unchanged since the 23rd. We’ve had some ups and downs, some sell-offs and rallies, some gap downs and gap ups, and in the end it seems like price is correcting with the passage of time rather than a drop in prices.
Overall things look good. The right groups are leading, and the safe havens are lagging. The small caps and tech stocks are doing well. Leadership stocks (most of them) are doing their job. Some cyclical indicators are diverging from the price action or at extremes – this continues to tell us to be careful in the near term, but longer term indicators tell us there’s room to move on the upside. Perhaps a pullback will materialize or maybe we’ll get more of this sideways churn stuff. In either case I expect higher highs to be made. Absent bad news from Europe, the market is not going to just roll over here. More after the open.
headlines at Yahoo Finance
headlines at MarketWatch
today’s upgrades/downgrades
this week’s Earnings
this week’s Economic Numbers

0 thoughts on “Before the Open (Feb 1)”

  1. Looks like we could be seeing an SPX “b” wave rally into the target area I mentioned yesterday (1324-1326)or perhaps to 1328. A reversal in this area could be a low risk short position with a close stop, IMO,at least for an intraday trade.
    As mentioned previously, wave 4 (of larger wave C)can take many forms. Since we’ve already seen a .382 correction (measured from DEC’s 1248ish low to 1330) yesterday at 1300, that could have completed wave 4 (wave 4 corrections are typically shallow and .382 could have satisfied a wave 4 bottom). I’m leaning towards a triangle or flat correction if we’re marking time to work off the daily overbought Stoch/RSI etc. stats, however. That would imply that wave 4 becomes a sideways congestion into or through next week, as I see it.

      1. Brian – While I’m allowing for the possibility that wave 4 ended at SPX 1300, I think the daily RSI, Stoch, MACD etc. need to be unwound some more. Also, if I’m correct that we’re watching a 3 wave advance off of 1300 (abc), wave c = wave a at 1328. A reversal in that area and a move below 1321 would confirm wave 4 is still in progress, IMO.

  2. Brian – It would be ideal if SPX could make one more minor high above 1329.17 and then reverse, but if not, a break below 1328 would prompt me to get short with a tight stop above today.

  8. trading is a game of chess,with snakes and ladders as well
    the smart hedies need to trap the dum long only mutuals
    so after the mutuals reallocation/recycle
    then monday we go to zero–it will be fast /unrelenting
    watch the carry trade that uses the euro
    Beatrice –my pet crystal ball told me this

  10. As I tell my relatives and frnds who cares? As long as its not illegal or immoral, make money. And keep compounding it.
    BIDU setting up again. SINA coming to long term resistance.

  11. Raymond, the aussie market has to little a capitalization and i dont trade usa shares
    so i make my money on the world index futures
    ur posts have been enjoyable and show u have a lot of knowledge of usa shares

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