Good morning. Happy Thursday.
The Asian/Pacific markets closed mixed; there were no 1% movers. Europe is currently mostly up; Norway and France are leading the way. Futures here in the States point towards a positive open for the cash market.
The dollar is down. Oil and copper are up. Gold and silver are up slightly.
Yesterday the S&P closed at 1349.96 – 4 cents shy of my 1350 target I established over a month ago. But targets right now are silly because the market has a mind of its own. It’s going to do what it wants to do, and it doesn’t care about technical levels. It only cares about moving up. There are numerous reasons the market should correct or at least rest – namely the over-bought nature and numerous diverging indicators – but price action rules. As I’ve noted a couple times the last couple weeks, the current character of the market is very similar to the end of 2010 and beginning of 2011 when the market steadily and slowly moved up day after day, week after week, and the S&P gained about 300 points.
My plan is to keep doing what I’m doing until it stops working. That means I’m long good set ups from leading groups. Keep it simple. More after the open.
headlines at Yahoo Finance
headlines at MarketWatch
today’s upgrades/downgrades
this week’s Earnings
this week’s Economic Numbers
0 thoughts on “Before the Open (Feb 9)”
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More alphas setting up. Almost 1/2 way through the big event earnings, expect more profit taking pull backs.
Time to be defensive esp if late on long entry.
Note AAPL is going parabolic, popped out of its multi yr bull channel, taking profit $56k booked, still watching.
But AAPL is not the mrkt, dont get caught in the dumb money trap or GS is the mrkt, prior to that GE GM XRX etc. Need to heed herd behaviour but not be a sucker.
EW analysis aside, the hourly SPX chart is showing trendlines drawn 1300 and 1322 are being tested (same for trendlnes drawn from late JAN in INDU & NDX). SPX first support, IMO, would be 1330-1333 and then 1320-1322 where chart support and 10/20 day EMAs are currently.
Good idea. Regardless of the action of the indices there are great opportunities under the hood. Some big movers for overnight – +10 day holds. The indices have been one of the biggest scams used by the smart money to take money from us dumb money. beat drums in the east, attack from the west – Sun Tsu.
Just make money, keep it, compound it.
Over reliance on cycles, seasonality have suppressed and destroyed the performance of many traders.
On the flip side futures and forex have destroyed many a trader at a much faster rate.
Combining both of course is a real good way to bleep yourself up your portfolio.
And this is the great challenge of trading, the tremendous work and focus require to dig under the hood, to put in the time and effort to work and make the big money – while minimizing the big give backs ;).
Still looking for traders of character to share the work load and collaborate with. Keep running into too many free loading slackers, budding bernie maddoffs and other bleep heads.
trendlines drawn from 1300 and 1322
taking some profit on TSL, 3rd pull may break out today
1/2 out $31k booked, looking to build a long swing.
this should work out to be better than my BVSN (looking to finish my 6th swing)
there are other plays
TVIX has closed the gap but not too perky. out.
BOIL trying again
still needs more days of work
As Ken Fisher would say TGH continues to humiliate the masses while continuing to seek alpha heat.
BIDU coming off the bottom of an potential new bull channel
both BIDU and YNDX are looking hesistant, take profit or take it all off if they exhibit weakness into the close.
Raymond – you’re a workhorse (that’s a compliment). I’d like to get a better idea of your thought process in trading.
If I may, can we look at TGH? I look at it on the daily/weekly charts and see it acting in line with the indexes, e.g. SPX. On the daily chart, the daily MACD is on a sell signal, the daily RSI is declining but above 50. There’s a nice bullish trendline from the OCT low with a lot of support at 29 – 30 area which also seems to coincide with the lower bollinger band now at 29.85. Can I assume a) you’re bullish; b) you’re looking to add positions on a pullback to support; c) if the pullack finds support at the trendline, you would add positions above the support level I mentioned, or wait for a breakout above 32.60? Or, something different based on differnt analysis?
Been busy adjusting trades.
I generally trade jumpy stocks with 1m+ avg daily volume with readable technicals and preferably backed by good fundamentals. That said I do trade and recommend to my family some low vol stocks like TGH but dont like to chat about them because low vol makes them subject to manipulation.
TGH is not one I would trade. But on quick review it has good fundamentals, technicals and price range is too tepid, vol too thin.
I expect it to retest its recent brk out lvl of 30ish. If it fails that I would consider dumping it for a better swing if you have insight into more upside for it.
Good luck.
Also I tend to stay away from index correlated stocks, they are usually the has beens, the dead money.
I do trade the ultra ETFs based on the indices and sectors which I have significantly reduced positions on today. ie – TQQQ TNA TYH DRN etc. These along with the thick alphas like AAPL DLTR etc are the bulk of my core IRA and RRSP (Cdn 401k/IRA) holdings.
Others like BIDU I have been slowly building a larger long posn.
You and others who are serious traders can contact me via the Finviz mail. You dont have to be a paid member, I am not.
This is my profile http://finviz.com/collaborate_profile.ashx?uid=14893695
Raymond – Thanks for sharing your insight. I will give your input more thought in the evaluation of stock recommendations for clients with a longer term time horizon in mind.
Also, I am not particularly bullish on the general market now. I stand by my opening comment to be defensive. I continue to anticipate a pullback to get back on full margin I am skittish but remain long. I would be cautious about getting short too soon or dumping longs (unless you entered late) and being short at all.
I am bullish on some alpha stocks and will continue to trade them with aggression. Today closed most of my swing positions on TSL JKS FSLR, still holding 10k in TSL 3k in FSLR trying to build a longer swing position.
Tomorrow could be a busy day.
Looks like a bit of confusion here. This was an extremely busy week for me so was not paying too close attention to the chat.
If youre referring to my comment on Ken Fisher and TGH, TGH = The Great Humiliater. This is what Ken state is the true name of the market. And that as any seasoned trader knows is very true.
Once a trader embraced good speculation practices based on hard work with a healthy dose of skepticism / insecurity & well timed aggressive execution the frequency of humiliation tends to drop – but it never goes away ;).