Before the Open (Nov 20)

Good morning. Happy Tuesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets closed mixed. Australia, New Zealand and South Korea moved up; China moved down. Europe is currently mostly down, but none of the indexes have moved much. Futures here in the States point towards a flat open for the cash market.

The dollar is flat. Oil and copper are down a small amount. Gold and silver are up a small amount.
The market put in a big follow through day yesterday. The price gains were the biggest registered in several months (not a surprise, we know the biggest up days occur within downtrends), and volume was decent. But the first move off a depressed level is the easy move. There’s pent up buying interest, and shorts are eager to take profits. Then, after several days, the real test comes. That’s when real buying, institutional buying, needs to take place to offer evidence the bounce is the beginning of a rally, not just a bounce within a downtrend. We’re not there yet; we’re still in “short covering” mode, but soon the market will be tested. Unfortunately we have a holiday coming up which will throw things off. Right when the market will be tested, volume will dry up. Oh well.
There isn’t much company-specific news out…
Urban Outfitters (URBN) missed earnings expectations.
Krispy Kreme (KKD) beat expectations and then guided Wall St. higher.
Intel’s (INTC) CEO is retiring in May…very surprising to Intel’s Board and to the Street.
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) didn’t excite Wall St. with their earnings…stock is down almost 7%.
Hormel Foods (HRL) missed.
Heinz (HNZ) posted a profit increase that beat analyst expectations.
Best Buy (BBY) is also due to report.
In the near term my bias remains to the upside, but in the intermediate term (a couple months), the trend is still down. I personally don’t sit through the swings. On the way up, I’d rather take profits and look to rebuy at lower levels when a move seems to have run its course. On the way down, I’d rather cover and reshort a bounce than hold. How you play it depends on your trading style and what your personality permits you to do. I hate giving back profits so much that I tend to take profits too soon. This means I rarely give profits back, but I do miss bigger moves. Oh well. That’s my style. You figure out yours. More after the open.
headlines at Yahoo Finance
headlines at MarketWatch
today’s upgrades/downgrades
this week’s Earnings
this week’s Economic Numbers