Before the Open (Nov 26)

Posted on by Jason Leavitt

Good morning. Happy Monday. Hope you had a nice weekend.
The Asian/Pacific markets closed mixed. Taiwan moved up 1.1%; Indonesia and Singapore rallied 0.6% and 0.5% respectively. China dropped 0.5%. Europe is currently mostly down. France is down 0.8%; Norway, Stockholm, Switzerland, London and Greece are down at least 0.5%. Futures here in the States point towards a moderate gap down open for the cash market.

The dollar is flat. Oil is down, copper up slightly. Gold and silver are both down.
Despite last week being a holiday-shortened week, the market registered its biggest weekly gain in several months. In fact the S&P rallied so hard, it’s only down 3 points for the entire month. That’s an amazing comeback considering how much it was down just a week ago. But the first bounce is the easy bounce. Between bottom fishers, short covering and momentum players just looking for a quick buck, the move was not a surprise. The biggest moves, after all, occur within downtrends. Now the real test comes. To prove last week’s move doesn’t constitute a dead-cat bounce, the gains need to held, and volume needs to improve. Purely from a technical standpoint, rallying on declining volume is not a great foundation for continued gains. Hence the market has some proving to do.
Here’s the SPX daily. It moved straight down and now straight up. Volume has declined and what’s not shown in this chart is two big gap ups last week.

My bias remains to the upside, but the risk/reward for entering new longs is nowhere near what it was a week ago. Be careful. More after the open.
headlines at Yahoo Finance
headlines at MarketWatch
today’s upgrades/downgrades
this week’s Earnings
this week’s Economic Numbers

0 thoughts on “Before the Open (Nov 26)”

  1. so far it is just a lower high in a downtrend
    and this is confirmed by the nature of the sharp bounce up and that only happens in a downtrend
    thanks to my deadcats gruesome and awesome,that i have now sold to china to allow them to manipulate the euro—which is my best indicator
    imo we should go down further,before a meaningfull bounce
    but then we have end month window dresses and year closer mutuals and possibly a austerity santa
    as its the bigboys and govts that move markets i will stay a daytrader till a confirmed trend

  2. many event things happening
    if greece defaults or kicks the can again –it will bring down london and germany that hols most greek debt—ftse weekest today effecting the dji–ndx strongest –buy a apple
    if argenteena defaults –it will bring down usa
    dont cry for me argenteena

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