Before the Open (Jan 31)

Good morning. Happy Thursday.
The Asian/Pacific markets closed mixed. Australia, Hong Kong and India dropped; Japan and Taiwan moved up; but none of the indexes moved much overall. Europe is currently down across the board. Greece, France, Amsterdam, London and the Czech Republic are down the most. Futures here in the States point towards a slight down open for the cash market.

The dollar is flat. Oil is down, copper up. Gold and silver are down slightly.
Here’s the S&P daily chart. So far the index is up 100 on the month – a phenomenal performance regardless of what happens today. I don’t like thinking in terms of over-bought and over-sold because everyone has their own set of criteria to define those conditions, and the market can often stay in one camp or the other for an extended period of time. Instead I think in terms risk/reward. At the beginning of a move, the risk/reward is very favorable, so I use loose stops and give positions time and space to play out. As the move matures the risk/rewards becomes less favorable, often only 1:1. That’s when I shift into management mode and make sure I keep what profits I have. The same pattern will yield two different results based on when the stock starts to make its move. Right now I think it’s too risky to chase stocks higher. With the uninterrupted vertical move we’ve had, the upside is limited until the market can rest. It doesn’t have to rest long or undergo a big correction. It just has to rest long enough to enable the charts to reset.

PulteGroup (PHM) reported more sales and higher closing prices. The stock is up fractionally.
Altria Group (MO) reported a 32% earnings jump.’
Whirlpool (WHR) is down 0.5% after reporting earnings.
Dow Chemical (DOW) posted a Q4 loss. Quarterly sales dropped, and they missed analyst expectations.
Viacom (VIA) basically met expectations.
WMS Industries (WMS) is up 56% premarket on news it’s getting acquired by Scientific Games (SGMS).
Nasdaq OMX Group (NDAQ) posted a surprise 3.7% jump in earnings.
Hershey’s (HSY) profit rose 5.4% and raised its earnings outlook.
Under Armour’s (UA) profit jumped 54%.
Occidental Petroleum (OXY) is up 2%…earnings related.
Colgate-Palmolive (CL) is down 1.7%…earnings related.
Pitney Bowes (PBI) is up 2.3%.
Helmerich & Payne (HP) posted an 11% profit rise.
JDS Uniphase (JDSU) is up almost 14% after releasing earnings.
Facebook (FB) is down 7.3%.
Ball (BLL), BE Aerospace (BEAV), M.D.C. Holdings (MDC) and Thermo Fisher (TMO) also have earnings today.
headlines at Yahoo Finance
headlines at MarketWatch
today’s upgrades/downgrades
this week’s Earnings
this week’s Economic Numbers