Before the Open (Feb 1)

Good morning. Happy Friday. Happy Employment Numbers Day.
The Asian/Pacific markets were mixed today. China, Australia, Indonesia and Japan did well; India lagged. Europe is currently mostly up. Austria and the Czech Republic are down; Belgium, France, Norway, Stockholm, London and Greece are doing well. Futures here in the States point towards a moderate gap up open for the cash market, but this of course my change after the employment numbers are released.

The dollar is down. Oil and copper are down. Gold is up slightly; silver is flat.
I’ve been singing the same song all week, and it has served us well. All week I’ve been saying to be careful initiating new longs because 1) in most cases stocks are too far gone to chase and they need time to either rest or correct or 2) the overall market’s January move, although the best in 15 years, is mature, and buying late in a move does not yield the same results as buying early in a move. Whether you key off the overall market or focus on individual stocks, it was time to play good defense. When you get a near-vertical move that lasts an entire month, the risk/reward for new positions is not very good. This has been my stance, and it’s served us well because the market has dropped 3 of 4 days this week and many individual stocks have failed to follow through on recent breakouts. Given today is Friday, I see no reason to change anything. I’m more interested in making sure I keep the profits I have than aggressively entering new positions.
The unemployment numbers will be released 60 minutes before the open, but my new schedule here in Costa Rica will not enable me to be in front of my computer when they’re released. The numbers are important, but I don’t think they’re as important as the weekly jobless claims which are much easier to calculate. When I get back to my computer 15 minutes before the open, I’ll update the numbers below and see what the market’s reaction was. I don’t trade numbers that are released premarket, so not being here means nothing to me.
Here are the employment numbers…
unemployment rate: 7.9% (was 7.8% last month)
nonfarm payrolls: up 157K
private payrolls:
average workweek: unchanged at 34.4 hours
hourly earnings: up 4 cents to $23.78
December and November numbers were revised up.
For now my defensive posture remains. I’ll be back 15 minutes before the open.
headlines at Yahoo Finance
headlines at MarketWatch
today’s upgrades/downgrades
this week’s Earnings
this week’s Economic Numbers