Good morning. Happy Thursday.
The Asian/Pacific markets closed mixed. Australia, India, Indonesia and South Korea dropped 1% or more; Japan rallied 2.2%. Europe is currently mixed. Norway, Stockholm, Switzerland and the Czech Republic are down; Italy, Spain, Greece, Belgium and France are up. Futures here in the States point towards a moderate gap up open for the cash market.
The dollar is up. Oil is up, copper down. Gold and silver are down.
The market got clobbered yesterday. It was the single worst down day since the market bottomed in late February.
The bulls will say it’s just a little selling pressure within a solid up trend. The bears will say the failure of the market to follow through after making a new high is a bad sign. Both have valid points, and regardless of what happens over the next week or two, neither will admit they were wrong.
Over the weekend I issued a warning that it didn’t seem in the cards for the market to rally.
The small caps were lagging. All the indexes had made higher highs, the Russell small caps and S&P small caps failed to do the same.
Many indicators were not supporting the price movement. The AD line, AD volume line, declining new highs, inability of the TICK to move up and the bottoming put/call all pointed towards beneath-the-surface trouble brewing.
Many groups failed to match the market’s higher high. Tech, semis, financials, banks, home builders and others all moved down while the indexes pushed up.
And CAT has been lagging. I wondered in this video if it was a canary in a coal mine.
I have no interest predicting the future. That’s too hard and too stressful. I just call it as I see it, and everything I looked at told me to be very careful initiating new positions, so we shouldn’t be entirely surprised the market has been weak this week.
Embrace a pullback. If you’re long term bullish like I am, a correction would be a gift. It’ll provide an opportunity to buy stocks at lower prices instead of chasing stocks that have already broken out several times. More after the open.
headlines at Yahoo Finance
headlines at MarketWatch
today’s upgrades/downgrades
this week’s Earnings
this week’s Economic Numbers
0 thoughts on “Before the Open (Apr 4)”
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The market has been up 4 months in a row and the gains have been handsome. The odds of April being up are low.
I say today’s gap up will not hold but no big bets on it.
Actually April is the second strongest month at 1.6% up average over twenty years.
The current set of political affairs is disruptive of investing and not going to get better soon. But watch the dollar and the Bond. Gold is headed to 1400 or somewhere down, softs may be bottoming.
I am short the Yen. I will sell, hold bonds and maybe go short in May until Sept. Play the probabilities.
the market was held up by only a few stocks
internals and fundermentals are bad
the market is not a true market but a synthetic market
never before to my knowledge has world central banks conspired to rig the market higher
it can not last
jail the pollies and curupt bankers
its just a big ponsi
not a genuioun up trend
please ask the fed when its members are going to jail
I’ll be in Honolulu for 3 months from next week Neal.
If you can afford it and I’ve got a minute to spare we can meet and you can tell me all you know.
A convenient place for us to meet would be the Outrigger Canoe Club but if you are not a member – well that just won’t work will it!!
Otherwise we could meet under the Banyon Tree at the Sheraton Moana Surfrider but that could again pose a problem if you are not known there.
Silly me – let us meet in your home city of Chicago.
Send me a ticket and let us do lunch as you previously suggested to anyone interested. I did express an interest but you didn’t respond.
Can’t wait – so excited. I can’t believe I didn’t think of it before.
I’m sure everyone on this site will wait with bated breath to hear my news.
My fav. Chicago restaurant is Alinea. It can be a tad pretentious – omg – but the food is to die for. If you can’t afford that Neal then “Girl & The Goat” maybe be a less expensive alternative and more to your taste option, especially in the naming department?
Then again “The Capital Grill Steakhouse” is cheap and cheerful – good food – but since a huge part of my income is derived from livestock – that is a trifle dull.
C’es la vie – what to feed the girl when beef and lamb are “ordinary”, pork is in the same category and she doesn’t eat fish save for lobster, bugs, king prawns and scallops and is so obviously not vegetarian.
Meet me in Honolulu or send me a ticket to Chicago Neal which would be preferable if you can’t afford Hawaii. I do owe Oprah a visit since my book was dedicated to her and it would be great for us to catch up.
Put your money where your mouth is honey,
Remember – you now have an audience and – nightly – all will be watching.
I’ve done my daily/evening technical trades and can’t wait to climb the nether regions and snuggle into a riveting Daphne De Maurier” with a very tight stop….loss.
Happy trading.
Elizabeth
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