Good morning. Happy Friday.
The Asian/Pacific markets closed mostly up. China and Hong Kong rallied more than 2%; India and Taiwan rallied more than 1%. Europe is currently up across-the-board. Austria is up 2.2%, France, Norway, Greece and the Czech Republic are up more than 1%. Futures here in the States point towards a big gap up open for the cash market.
The dollar is down slightly. Oil is up, copper is down. Gold and silver are up.
In my opinion the market is on thin ice. So far the move off the high can be considered a pullback within an uptrend, but if it lasts much longer or drops much further, we may reclassify it as the beginning of a legit correction.
There are many warning signs. The small and mid caps are lagging…key stocks are lagging…money is rotating out of growth and parasite groups and into safe havens…most breadth indicators suggest internal deterioration. From a technical standpoint, most signs point towards a further decline, but the long term trend is still solidly up.
I looked at 1000 charts yesterday, and I’d estimate they’re split. I found equal number of good long and short set ups and many others had pulled back off their high but weren’t necessary in good or bad shape.
I don’t think this is a time to go all in. Be selective and play good defense. Plus it’s Friday. We’ve had several big gap opens this week, and who knows what will happen Monday after a weekend of news is released. More after the open.
headlines at Yahoo Finance
headlines at MarketWatch
today’s upgrades/downgrades
this week’s Earnings
this week’s Economic Numbers
0 thoughts on “Before the Open (Apr 19)”
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Today’s gap will not be big enough to play. We are still a way from the bottom.
Emotionally I like being long. Being emotional with trading is very costly.
Patience.
The EU is on The verge of another iteration in public finance. But this time Germany’s central banker is saying that further German investment is not likely,unpopular. France is in a recession and has relaxed austerity in favor of “later”. And so it goes except this time the rot is close to the heart of the EMU. All hail Draghi, the miracle man. Be careful the fed has a propensity to be generous with your money to provide “liquidity”, dollars for debt. No end to old story.