Before the Open (May 13)

Good morning. Happy Monday. Hope you had a nice weekend.
The Asian/Pacific markets closed mixed. Japan and Malaysia moved up; Hong Kong, India and Indonesia moved down. Europe is currently mostly down, but there are no big losers. Greece and Austria are up. Futures here in the States point towards a down open for the cash market.

The dollar is down slightly. Oil is down, copper up. Gold and silver are down.
The market ended last week with everything pointing up. The indexes closed out their third straight up week, they closed at their highs and most of the indexes now sit at all-time highs. Most indicators support the strength, and most groups are confirming the market’s movement. The most bearish observation I can make is that everything is bullish. There are still perma bears out there, but from a technical standpoint, everything is clicking. On one side it’s nice to get all this confirmation, but when everything is stacked on one side, a reversal often follows. But you can’t bet on it. The bears have been doing that a long time and continue to be the punch line for many Wall St. jokes. The market can stay overbought and in idiot mode longer than makes sense.
After the bell Friday, word leaked the Fed is having discussions about when and how to wind down its QE program. This no doubt is partially responsible for the slight weakness this morning. Nobody can deny the stock market has benefited greatly from the Fed pumping a couple trillion dollars into the system, so news they may be looking to scale back is not something to be ignored. But in my eyes, it’s exactly the kind of news that can push stocks down in the near term only to see another vertical climb when everyone seems to be in agreement a top is in place. Why? Because it makes no sense, and that’s the market’s MO – to not make sense. Don’t assume such talk out of Washington is guaranteed to send stocks lower.
News trumps the charts. Major news can trump sentiment. The Fed news is big enough to get everyone’s attention, so manage positions wisely. Whatever was in place when the market closed on Friday could have been altered. More after the open.
headlines at Yahoo Finance
headlines at MarketWatch
today’s upgrades/downgrades
this week’s Earnings
this week’s Economic Numbers