Before the Open (May 16)

Good morning. Happy Thursday.
The Asian/Pacific markets closed mixed. China, South Korea and Taiwan did well. Malaysia pulled up the rear. Europe is currently mixed. Belgium, Stockholm and the Czech Republic are doing well while Austria is down about 0.5%. Futures here in the States point towards a flat open for the cash market.

The dollar is up slightly. Oil and copper are down. Gold and silver are down.
This is the latest cover of The Economist. Many years ago when Barron’s would run such a cover, the market would top. I’m not sure if The Economist yields the same influence. Wall Street is Back. Really? After rallying for four years and more than doubling to record new all-time highs, this magazine finally says Wall St. is back. I wonder what the cover of Time is right now.

The market is clearly in idiot mode. I am not calling a top, but I am not as interested in going long. The risk/rewards just aren’t very favorable. This doesn’t mean I’m selling all my positions, it just means any position which was meant to be a quick trade is not going to be give much wiggle room. I personally am more willing to give up some upside (leave money on the table) than give profits back (hold too long). Positions which were meant to be longer term holds will be held. There’s no reason to sell those as long as the trend remains up, and the stocks continue to act well.
That’s pretty much my stance right now. The trend is super strong, and I have no intention to fight it. But things are a little stretched, so I’m not interested in chasing things in the near term.
Here is some stock specific news from individual companies from barchart.com…
Both Molson Coors (TAP -0.06%) and Constellation Brands (STZ +0.22%) were upgraded to “Buy” from “Hold” at Stifel.
Coca-Cola Enterprises (CCE +2.68%) was downgraded to “Hold” from “Buy” at Stifel because of valuation.
WalMart (WMT +1.37%) reported Q1 EPS of $1.14, slightly weaker than consensus of $1.15, and said it sees Q2 EPS of $1.22-$1,27, weaker than consensus of $1.29.
Kohl’s (KSS +1.00%) reported Q1 EPS of 66 cents, better than expectations of 57 cents.
Actavis (ACT +1.81%) rose nearly 6% in pre-market trading after the WSJ reported that Novartis AG my bid for the largest U.S. maker of generic drugs.
The WSJ reported that General Electric (GE +1.00%) said more than 70 Boeing (BA +0.95%) 777 models may be affected by an engine manufacturing defect.
Potash (POT +0.70%) increased its quarterly dividend to 35 cents per share from 28 cents.
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved a new use for Simponi, a drug marketed by Janssen, a unit of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ +0.77%) , to treat adults with moderate to severe ulcerative colitis.
Berkshire Hathaway reported a 5.03% passive stake in Liberty Media (LMCA +1.76%) and a 5.8% passive stake in DirecTV (DTV +1.18%) .
Aegean Marine (ANW +2.04%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 13 cents, weaker than consensus of 14 cents.
Sapient (SAPE +0.27%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 12 cents, better than consensus of9 cents.
Monthly data from ComScore showed Google (GOOG +3.25%) sites led U.S. April searches on the internet with 66.5% of search queries conducted, followed by Microsoft (MSFT +0.95%) sites with 17.4%, and Yahoo! (YHOO +2.63%) sites with 12%.
Jack in the Box (JACK +0.29%) reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 33 cents, better than consensus of 31 cents.
Cisco (CSCO -0.28%) rallied over 8% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 EPS of 51 cents, higher than consensus of 49 cents.
headlines at Yahoo Finance
headlines at MarketWatch
today’s upgrades/downgrades
this week’s Earnings
this week’s Economic Numbers

0 thoughts on “Before the Open (May 16)

  1. Berkshire down graded to AA. End of the world? 98% stock above 200 DMA. And First time claims up. Housing starts down 17%. Sell in May looking good. Lots of cash seems just prudent.

  2. nonsence Neal–my job is to pick intraday tops/bottoms ,dayly
    a favourite amounst the black box computers is the pitch fork top and false break bottom
    ofcourse picking a future top is almost imposible as the future is contoled by govts/big insto hedgies and they dont follow conventional retailer t/a
    derivities control the cash market,used by govt and intos alike

  3. “The market is clearly in idiot mode.”
    Amen.
    I am beginning to believe my models which have indicated a top Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Not that I want to short the market but I will short weak sisters like GM, AAPL, JCP..
    Being a follower of Livermore I do watch certain stocks which do drop before the market falls. They are indeed falling.
    Sell hi buy low.
    Paul

  4. the dji top was in within the first 45 minutes–usually are
    it then pitchfork double toped for europe close and also yesterday top
    confirmed by the ym m3 futures giving confirmation
    neal you need to become a daytrader and have fun

  5. another dareing call if it has the blessing of the big boy insto hedgies
    after dji and spx toped and hang arround waiting for the ndx100 to do some acrobatics for opts ex tomorrow and in light of europe /asia all hiting there nice even stike multi decade highs and turning in some cases
    then let me be the first fool to call a multi decade major world top

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