Before the Open (Nov 18)

Posted on by Jason Leavitt

Good morning. Happy Monday. Hope you had a nice weekend.
The Asian/Pacific markets closed mostly up. China, Hong Kong and India each rallied more than 2%; Indonesia moved up more than 1%. Europe is currently up across the board. Czech Republic, Greece, Spain and Italy are doing the best; France and Germany are also doing well. Futures here in the States point towards a positive open for the cash market.

The dollar is down. Oil is down, copper flat. Gold and silver are down.
Last week ended with three strong days and closes at the weekly highs. Many indexes are sitting at all-time highs. The small caps are lagging. Most indicators support the trend and are far from being overbought, so there’s room to move before the technicals tell us to lighten up. Even die-hard bears are predicting one last flurry of buying before a top is put in place. I guess the most negative/bearish observation I can make is that the market is in full-blown rally mode, everyone is believer and there is no fear.
My stance has remained the same. I’ve repeatedly said the long term trend was solidly up (it takes a lot for me to change my long term view; I’m certainly not going to get scared by a minor dip). The short term trend has been mostly up, but there have been pullbacks and consolidation patterns that have allowed the charts to reset and provide us with new and better entries. All in all, a trader could not ask for better overall conditions. Rally, dip, rally, rest, rally, dip, repeat, repeat, repeat. Stupid bulls who don’t know jack about anything continue to make money. Brilliant bears continue to get killed. There are lots of dumb cliches on Wall St. “The trend is your friend” is not one of them. It’s true.
Stock headlines from barchart.com…
Tyson Foods (TSN +0.49%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 70 cents, better than consensus of 69 cents.
Bristow Group (BRS +0.94%) was upgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Sell’ at Goldman.
Diebold (DBD +0.30%) was upgraded to ‘Buy’ from ‘Hold’ at KeyBanc.
Walter Energy (WLT +0.89%) and Nucor (NUE +0.96%) were both downgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Buy’ at Citigroup.
Baxter (BAX +1.57%) was upgraded to ‘Outperform’ from ‘Neutral’ at Credit Suisse.
Boeing (BA +0.73%) rose 3.2% in pre-market trading after it secured new plane orders from Etihad Airways PJSC for its new 777X wide-body planes as well as for more 787 Dreamliners on the first day of the DUbai Air Show.
Microsoft (MSFT -0.47%) was downgraded to ‘Underperform’ from ‘Neutral’ at BofA/Merrill.
SuperValu (SVU -1.43%) was downgraded to ‘Sell’ from ‘Neutral’ at Goldman.
Fairfax Financial Holdings reported a 17.7% stake in BlackBerry (BBRY -0.62%) .
Earnings and Economic Numbers from seekingalpha.com…
Today’s economic calendar:
9:00 Treasury International Capital
10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index
10:00 E-Commerce Retail Sales
Notable earnings before today’s open: JKS, TSN
Notable earnings after today’s close: APU, BRCD, CRM, JEC, SMTC, UGI
Other…
today’s upgrades/downgrades from briefing.com
this week’s Earnings
this week’s Economic Numbers

0 thoughts on “Before the Open (Nov 18)”

  1. Last week was way too quiet. We may get some interesting bumps as we hit new highs.
    That said the bulls are getting overconfident but I don’t see a stampede nor do I see a collapse. Just a dip, or a ground out new high.

  2. SPX hit my targets of 1790 and 1795 on Thurs and Fri respectively.
    Overnight, the futures dipped and have bounced from new support that has a tgt at SPX 1800 or a bit higher. Would expect a move lower to fill the gap at 1798, whether before or after tagging 1800-01, can’t say.
    Tgt for the week could easily be 1815 – 1818.
    At 20 mins prior to bell, SPX futures +4.25, Dow +57.

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