Before the Open (Jun 16)

Good morning and happy Thursday from Telluride, where it’s opening day of the Bluegrass Festival.
The Asian/Pacific markets closed mostly down. Japan dropped 3.1%; Hong Kong fell 2.1%; Taiwan fell 1.3%, and Singapore, India, Malaysia and South Korea were also weak. Europe is currently mostly down. Norway, Sweden, Poland, Denmark, Italy, Russia and Greece are down more than 1%; London, Germany, Austria, Turkey, Finland, Spain, Belgium and Portugal are also weak. Futures here in the States point towards a fairly big gap down open for the cash market.
—————
List of Indexes and ETFs – here
—————
The dollar is up. Oil and copper are down. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are up.
The S&P has dropped five straight days for the first time since February. The last six-day losing streak was the collapse last August. Those very simple negative divergences between the market and the breadth indicators should not be ignored. The AD volume line, bullish percent charts and percentage of stocks above certain moving averages all told us the participation rate towards the end of this most recent rally declined, so the upside was likely limited. It doesn’t mean you have to go all-in on the short side; it just means scale back and resist new entries unless groups continue to out-perform.
The entire world is focused on the “stay or go” vote in Britain next. Britain will be fine regardless of what happens; they’ll absorb whatever fallout takes place. But if other countries follow suit, the entire EU will unravel…this is what scares investors right now. Uncertainty is huge.
Big news events are typically one-offs. They influence the market in the very near term, but they rarely change the overall structure. The news that will come out of Great Britain next week is the biggest we’ll get in a very long time; it’s big enough to linger. If you have a lot of exposure, know what your risks is. Accept it or scale back. Personally my biggest holdings are in gold and silver, and they’re doing just fine.
Have a great day. I won’t be around much past the opening bell.
Stock headlines from barchart.com…
Chubb Ltd. (CB -0.10%) was downgraded to ‘Underweight’ from ‘Neutral’ at Atlantic Equities.
Aetna (AET +0.30%) was rated a new ‘Outperform’ at Bernstein with a price target of $142.
Yahoo! (YHOO -0.21%) was upgraded to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral’ at Citigroup with a price target of $43.
Ctrip.com International Ltd. (CTRP -2.14%) climbed 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 net revenue of $648 million, higher than consensus of $629 million.
Kansas City Southern (KSU -1.58%) was rated a new ‘Outperform’ at Oppenheimer with an 18-month price target of $103.
Cal-Maine Foods (CALM -0.37%) was upgraded to ‘Hold’ from ‘Underweight’ at BB&T Capital Markets.
Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure (HASI +0.48%) slid over 4% in after-hours trading after it started a 3.9 million share secondary offering
Culp (CFI +1.50%) reported Q4 net sales of $77.3 million, below consensus of $79.1 million, and said it sees Q1 comparable sales slightly lower y/y.
Jabil Circuit (JBL -0.32%) slumped 8% in after-hours trading after it said it expects Q4 core EPS between 15 cents and 35 cents, well below consensus of 53 cents.
Korn/Ferry (KFY -2.51%) lost over 1% in after-hours trading after it said it sees Q1 adjusted EPS of 50 cents-58 cents, below consensus of 58 cents.
Cavium (CAVM +3.81%) will acquire QLogic ({=QLGC for about $1.36 billion in cash and stock.
Clarcor (CLC +0.65%) reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 73 cents. better than consensus of 68 cents.
Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp. (TNXP -2.77%) dropped 12% in after-hours trading after it announced a proposed public offering of common stock.
Today’s Economic Calendar
8:30 Consumer Price Index
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 Philly Fed Business Outlook
8:30 Current Account
:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
4:30 PM Money Supply
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
Today’s Earnings here
Other…
today’s upgrades/downgrades from briefing.com
this week’s Earnings
this week’s Economic Numbers