Good morning. Happy Wednesday. Happy Fed Day.
The Asian/Pacific markets closed mostly up. Japan led with a 1.7% gain, followed by Indonesia (up 1.0%). China dropped 1.9%. Europe is currently mostly up. France, Turkey, Spain and Italy are up more than 1%; Germany, the UK, Austria, Sweden, Finland and Portugal are also doing well. Futures in the States point towards a gap up open for the cash market.
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List of Indexes and ETFs – here
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The dollar is up. Oil and copper are down. Gold and silver are down. Bonds are down.
Today is Fed day. The Fed made a decision a long time ago they wanted to keep rates very low for as long as possible, so even if their dual mandate (low unemployment, 2% inflation) is in place or in the process of being put in place, they’ll cite other issues as a reason/excuse to keep rates low.
Even though the market is near all-time highs, rates will not be raised today.
Here’s the S&P vs. the Fed Funds rate going back to 2000. The charts moved together until 2009 – when the market moved down, the Fed lowered rates in an attempt to jump start the economy, and when it moved up, the Fed raised rates so growth wouldn’t happen too quickly. Then in 2009, even after the market started to recover, the Fed decided to keep rates low – permanently. I guess this time is different. The Fed doesn’t think the market can handle a slightly higher rate.
Once we get this meeting out of the way, it’ll be back to focusing on earnings.
Stock headlines from barchart.com…
Apple (AAPL -0.69%) rallied +6% in overnight trading after its earnings report included news that iPhone sales were stronger than expected and that revenue fell by less than expected.
Twitter (TWTR -1.07%) is down -11% in overnight trading on weaker-than-expected Q3 revenue guidance of $590-610 million, far below the consensus of $681 million, which fueled recent concerns that the company is struggling to boost advertising revenue as user growth stagnates.
Earnings reports this morning have nearly all beaten expectations. Notable results include Anthem (ANTM -1.71%) (3.33 vs 3.23 consensus), Coca-Cola ({=KO) (0.60 vs 0.58), Comcast (CMCSA -0.43%) (0.83 vs 0.81), State Street (STT +0.92%) (1.46 vs 1.27), Rockwell (ROK +2.08%) (1.55 vs 1.46), Nasdaq (NDAQ +0.09%) (0.91 vs 0.88), Waste Management (WM +0.19%) (0.74 vs 0.71),
Analog Devices (ADI +3.87%) rallied +7% in after-hours trading after the earlier announcement that it is buying Linear Technology (LLTC +28.93%) for $14.8 billion at a premium of 24% to Monday’s closing price. Linear Technology on Tuesday closed up +29%.
Fiesta Restaurant Group (FRGI -6.96%) rallied +2% in after-hours trading after being named to the S&P SmallCap 600 index.
LogMeIn (LOGM +6.74%) rallied 19% in after-hours trading after news that the company will merge with Citrix’s (CTXS +1.19%) GoTo family of products. Citrix fell -1.2% in after-hours trading on the news.
Edwards Sciences (EW +1.72%) rallied by +6% in after-hours trading after reporting above-consensus ex-items adjusted EPS of 76 cents (vs the 70 cent consensus) and raising its 2016 earnings guidance for the third quarter in a row.
Panera Bread (PNRA -4.32%) rallied +4% in after-hours trading after reporting better than expected adjusted EPS of $1.78 (vs consensus $1.74).
Akamai Technologies (AKAM +0.33%) fell by -10% in after-hours trading after missing Q2 revenue estimates.
Juniper Networks (JNPR +0.67%) fell -1% in after-hours trading after its Q3 earnings guidance of 48-54 cents missed the consensus of 54 cents. Q2 adjusted EPS of 50 cents was above the 47-cent consensus.
Tuesday’s Key Earnings
3M (NYSE:MMM) -1.1% lowering its sales growth outlook.
Anadarko (NYSE:APC) flat AH on a narrower than expected loss.
Apple (AAPL) +6.8% AH on impressive quarterly results.
Buffalo Wild Wings (NASDAQ:BWLD) +1.7% despite a same-store sales drop.
Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) +5.2% after beating estimates.
DuPont (NYSE:DD) +0.4% following a guidance boost.
Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) flat after posting in-line earnings.
Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) +2.4% on fewer write-downs.
McDonald’s (NYSE:MCD) -4.5% as comp-store sales missed estimates.
Panera (NASDAQ:PNRA) +1.3% after topping estimates.
Sirius XM (NASDAQ:SIRI) +4.8% raising full-year projections.
Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) -10.6% AH as revenue growth stalled.
U.S. Steel (NYSE:X) +7.7% improving its full-year outlook.
Under Armour (NYSE:UA) -5.1% on tightening margins.
United Tech (NYSE:UTX) +3.1% lifting its guidance range.
Valero (NYSE:VLO) +4.7% after topping expectations.
Verizon (NYSE:VZ) -1.9% impacted by a wireline strike.
Today’s Economic Calendar
7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
8:30 Durable Goods
10:00 Pending Home Sales
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
11:30 Results of $15B, 2-Year FRN Auction
2:00 PM FOMC Announcement
Today’s Earnings here
Other…
today’s upgrades/downgrades from briefing.com
this week’s Earnings
this week’s Economic Numbers
2 thoughts on “Before the Open (Jul 27)”
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Fed day, no chg expected but lots of nagging – there is some inflation and i can grow, but now in energy.
BOJ has offered helo money, futures up globally; we love QE. Us durable goods – not good – weak. Time to think about fall set ups. How does one play this fall and 2017?
Jason sees most earnings today as up, but we must recall P/E is the other side of earnings. Most of the winners also buy their stock back and have higher stk prices & higher debt levels as a result. Earnings can rise,but not for long in this setting. US economy is coasting and needs more consumption. Trouble is public debt of 18 trillion dollars. I am ancient and today is the least friendly market/economy that I can recall since 1955. Care! things can go to hell fast!
Jason I am wondering how long until oil prices affect the trend in the overall markets. It seems like the last time oil went south of 40/bl that we saw some effect. It was not surprising to see oil push below 42 however given the current supply overhang and that gasoline refineries are heading into maintenance seasons we could see oil continue to push down. If one compares the 2016 behavior with 2016, the timing of the rise/fall in pricing is similar albeit 2015 there is a higher offset in price. One difference is that in 2016 we are sitting at record supply levels.