Before the Open (Nov 17)

Good morning. Happy Wednesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets closed mostly down – China, Hong Kong and India each lost around 2%. Europe is currently mixed with an upward bias – gains and losses are small. Futures here in the States point towards a positive open for the cash market.
Yesterday was a nasty day for the market, and from a breadth indicator standpoint, the indexes are in their worst shape since before the rally began.
Yesterday was the first time in a couple months new lows exceeded new highs.
The number of SP1500 stocks making 10-day lows hit its highest level since Aug 24.
The number of SP1500 stocks making 20-day lows hit its highest level since Aug 25.
The number of SP1500 stocks trading above their 10-day MA is at its lowest level since Jul 6.
The number of SP1500 stocks trading above their 20-day MA is at its lowest level since Aug 31.
The number of SP1500 stocks trading above their 30-day MA is at its lowest level since Sep 1.
But the difference between the end of Aug and right now is the market moved down the entire month of Aug to register these low levels. Today’s market has reached them in a little more than a week.
Thus far I’ve treated the pullback like a pullback within an uptrend (even though I went to cash the week of election & FOMC). But we have to look for clues that a structural change is underway, that this is the beginning of a move down, not a counter move within an uptrend.
Here’s the SPX 60-min chart. I DO NOT believe in “lines in the sand.” I do not believe there are magic levels that once taken out guarantee a quick move. I’ve seen way too many false moves. Right now I’m mostly interested in the underside of the trendline near 1200. If it can’t be reclaimed on a bounce, a bigger move down will play out.

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today’s upgrades/downgrades
this week’s Earnings Reports
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