Before the Open (Aug 22)

Good morning. Happy Monday. Hope you had a nice weekend.
The Asian/Pacific markets closed mostly down. Japan and South Korea lost more than 1%. India gained more than 1%. Europe is currently mostly up, and there are some big winners. Belgium, France, Stockholm, Switzerland and London are up more than 2%. Futures here in the States point towards a large gap up open for the cash market.
The dollar is down slightly. Gold and silver are up (gold is at another new high). Oil is up almost a buck.
I don’t have anything to add to my weekend report where I said the next couple days would go a long way towards hinting at the next couple week’s movement…that the market would either 1) slice through the recent lows, 2) take out the lows and then bounce soon after or 3) double bottom and bounce now.
The trend is down, and absent Europe completely solving their debt issues, I see little chance an uptrend resumes. Yes we’ll get bounces along with the way – some big and aggressive and lasting several weeks – but overall I consider the trend to be down and lower prices to be on the horizon. Unless the S&P can close above 1200 this month, my next S&P target is 1000, which happens to be the 2010 low.
Futures are getting a boost from northern Africa where Qaddafi’s 42 years of ruling Libya have come to an end.
I’ll have more to say after the open…I usually don’t have much to say on Monday mornings since I just wrote an extensive report over the weekend.
headlines at Yahoo Finance
today’s upgrades/downgrades
this week’s Earnings
this week’s Economic Numbers

0 thoughts on “Before the Open (Aug 22)

  1. Why not give?
    Why you doubt? Doesn’t matter either way does it?
    Crammer isn’t a day trader.
    Conundrum: Seems the market wants to go down but the Fed wants it to go up.

  2. Neal: I live 1 block away from the 92nd Street Y here in Manhattan.
    Cramer will be socializing, giving a lecture on Monday Dec 5th at
    8:15pm. I guess you can crash at my place for the evening and
    I’ll sleep on the floor soze you guys can be all comfy and stuff.
    Cramer has to wake up early anyway, soze instead of driving back
    to New Jersey he can stay at my place and take the subway to
    Wall Street in the morning. No Neal, you cannot sniff Cramer’s underwear.

    1. I forgot to mention that most likely Melissa Francis from CNBC
      will be there as well, but you cannot sniff her underwear.
      I just emailed you the information a few minutes ago.
      Check the flights, come in on a Friday and leave the
      following Tuesday. The only expense to you is clean
      up fees for the maid which is US $80 dollars. HW

  3. I’ll throw a couple of observations from the technical (Neal, close your eyes) point of view that I hope won’t be too complicated to follow. This may on of those times where EW can be really helpful. In my opinon, we’re in a 3rd wave down of some lesser degree from SPX 1356 with a downside target in the 1000-1050. Others may have an even more bearish analysis and consider the consolidation since SPX 1100 as part of a larger degree wave 2 corrective rally preceding a sharp move down through 1000-1050. Regardless of who turns out right (we’ll know in hindsight) this rally is a shorting opportunity on a failure in the 1145-1155 area from a SWING TRADE perspective. There’s a 100-150 point profit opportunity or greater off a reversal downward from 1145-1155. If 1000-1050 holds an ensuing selloff, a larger rally could occur back to 1200-1220 where the longer term shorting opportunity may occur, in my opinon.

    1. PeteM: did you fax-email your current analysis over to
      your buddies at the Fed? They will bleed this down into
      the Jax Hole meeting and then pump it up later on.
      Politics, motivations, show of strength does not allow
      them to pump it up just yet soze they can give Ben
      a big push later on in the week. HW

      1. Howard – as I mentioned last week, I’ve declined Chuck Plosser’s request to rejoin his team. Unlike Neal, I feel the FED’s impact on the markets will diminsh over the next 12 months. Hwever you raise a good point. Today’s failure (thus far) at SPX 1145 suggests a test of 1100 at minimum and perhaps 1000-1050 going into BEN’s FRI speechifying where we could see a big rally because there are still many (like Neal) who think the FED can still control things including the stock market. However, an acceleration down this week would be baaadd! As of the moment, I’m still inclined to think we move down to 1100+/- in a “wedge” like pattern into FRI setting up your expected “pump” back to 1155. Of course, it goes without saying that I may be full of spit with my analysis.

        1. In conjunction with my analysis as well as yours,
          I think everybody in all camps will be on hold
          to the end of this week. Taking a long walk
          would be the best thing to do. McHugh is looking
          at a possible ‘bull flag’ forming for a chance to
          go long sometime later this week. HW

  4. using my telepathy machine—it is still short
    1000 spx target for wave 1 of 3
    wave 3 to end at 666 –wave 5 at 333
    wave 7 at zero
    the date today is 1929

  5. european banks are frozen as merkell say the markets –banks will not dictate to her policy
    goodby barclays -lloyds–deautcher ect ect ect
    financial colapse iminent

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