Before the Open (Aug 26)

Posted on by Jason Leavitt

Good morning. Happy Friday.
The Asian/Pacific markets closed mostly down. India and Malaysia lost more than 1%. Europe is down across the board. Every market (except Austria) is down at least 1%. Futures here in the States point towards a negative open for the cash market.
On a long term basis, my stance remains the same. The trend is down; I expect to see much lower prices in the future. On a shorter term basis, the market could certainly pop, but after looking at 500 charts last night, I can conclude the odds are not great. The charts are not healthy. There are too many downtrends, too many bearish patterns. Here’s the short term chart I’ve been working off of. The gap filled, and now the S&P is sitting on support…but futures suggest the S&P will open below support.

Backing up a little, here’s the 30-min chart. A 7-month horizontal trendline was broken earlier this month, and now we have a bearish distribution pattern within a downtrend. Yesterday’s high needs to be taken out quickly or else this pattern will break down, and the S&P could quickly drop to 1000.

HERE’S a link to my public list at stockcharts with some trading ideas.
headlines at Yahoo Finance
today’s upgrades/downgrades
this week’s Earnings
this week’s Economic Numbers

0 thoughts on “Before the Open (Aug 26)”

  1. Hi PeteM: I was watching CNBC live from Jackson Hole where your boss
    Chuck Plosser was speaking to Steve Leisman. Well, anyway, if he is
    concerned he certainly doesn’t show any panic of any kind. It’s
    nice to know that they display this Boy Scout image on TV, but
    behind the scenes things are murky at best. 2) I will refrain
    from any kind of trading today until the final hour into the close.

  8. Breaking News: by 2pm Friday afternoon the U.S.A. will be
    officially out of the recession and they will announce
    that unemployment is down to 7.8%. Standard and Poors
    has recanted and reinstated the AAA credit rating to
    the U.S.:) Yawn, did I just wake up out of a deep sleep?

  9. Neal: why don’t you tell everybody the truth. You shut down
    your Dow 12,000 website, absconded with your subscriber’s
    paid in money and now you are living with a hooker
    somewhere in New Zealand, 1) living on the beach,
    2) growing a beard, etc. etc. That’s the real reason
    you didn’t want to see me and Cramer at the 92nd Y?

  12. While out & about this AM in client meetings, I listened to the analysts parse BEN’s speech on Bloomberg radio. The consensus of opinon was that BEN sez that, despite weak economic numbas, everything is okey dokey enough so that “stimulus” is not needed (at least until the 2 day FED meeting in SEPT). Ben deftly sent a backhand across the net to the PREZ & Congress to “do something – anything!” to get that jobs numba down. BUT & HOWEVER! BEN slso mentioned that he still had some “tools in the FED tollbox”. So, stock market down (no “stimulus” today)& then stock market up (everything still okey doke because BEN sez so).
    Apparently BEN’s “okey doke” meets Neal’s criteria for “let’s buy stocks” because, after all, you “don’t fight the FED”. We’ll see, I guess. In the meantime (Neal, close your eyes) from the technicals, I see still an EW 4 in progress (triangle or flat pattern) with resistance at 1190-1220. Whether it’s a wave 4 or RichE’s wave 2, we should go lower with a target of 1000-1050. Maybe then, BEN will be forced to dip into his “tool box” to spark a rally but I think it will be for naught.

    1. On a two year daily SPX: I think Aug 2011 is type Wave 2 looking for support, wanting to continue the journey up, looking for sellers to hold and sideliners to buy. If we get that then Neal will be right and if we don’t, Neal will be on vacation.

    2. our posts crossed same time Pete
      the fed has had its tool box confiscated by the europeans/china
      to stop it medeling and causing deverstation for the rest of the world
      the mutuals will just have to get along with out their fix
      and the BOYZ-big banks know all other banks are bankrupt –so no interbank lending
      im looking forward to a complete financial melt down
      i hope all yanks have overseas bank a/cs set up somewhere safe

  14. Well, I guess that proves my point that you can put 10 “Elliotticians” in a room and get 10 different wave “counts”. But I’m sure that you, like me, use other technical tools (I like trend lines & Moving averages)as complementary support. In that respect, I envy Neal. He’s never in doubt and in the FED he trusts! Keeping it simple, I guess and from what he says – it works for him.
    You’ll have to excuse while I prepare for Hurricane Irene. Howard!!!! anchor down the blow up doll and make sure you have necessary provisions for MAX (say hello). It’s his 1st hurricane.

    1. Elliott Wave: I don’t use count I use intent.
      Indicators: Candlesticks, volume, KVO, (5 minute chart), tea leaves, and a buffalo head nickel.
      I wish you guys would drop the blow up doll bit. It just tacky and not funny. If Howard uses a blow up doll that’s his business and not the thing to make fun of.

      1. Howard – please accept my apologies for saying something that was tacky and not funny. I blame it on Neal but take full responsibility for my conduct which was inappropriate and unacceptable.

          1. RichE – there’s some talk that AUG 29th may be a Bradley turn date (which would make this
            a topping area) which would fit in with the triangle/flat idea that I’m looking at. MON should be interesting.

  16. NEALS UPSET ‘CAUSE HE HAD HIS dOLL CONFISCATED AT CHRISTCHUCH AIRPORT IN NZ.pERSONALLY I LIKE THE ‘BEN BERNAKE FARTING DOLL’ WITH ONLY A SPANNER AND A BROKEN HAMMER IN HIS TOOLBOX ….

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