Before the Open (Sep 21)

Posted on by Jason Leavitt

Good morning. Happy Wednesday. Happy Fed Day.
The Asian/Pacific markets closed mostly up. Hong Kong and Indonesia lost more than 1%. China rallied 2.7%. Europe is mostly down. France, Germany, Amsterdam and London are down more than 1%. Futures here in the States point towards a small gap down for the cash market.
So the Fed meets today and announces their target for overnight rates. They of course won’t change anything since they’ve already said rates will remain low for two more years. They could however mention QE3 or not mention QE3. The market could jump up or dump down quickly. But the Fed rarely changes the market. They often cause a quick move in the near term, but in time the market goes back to what it was before the FOMC.
What is the market. Long term the trend is down. Short/Intermediate term there is no trend. Rallies get sold, dips get bought. Moves don’t last long. The intraday swings provide nice opportunities for day traders, but the lack of consistent near term direction makes life for a swing trader much harder. It’s not impossible to trade this, we just have to shorten our holding times and be content with smaller gains.
Be conservative out there. This isn’t a time to size up and be aggressive. More after the open.
headlines at Yahoo Finance
today’s upgrades/downgrades
this week’s Earnings
this week’s Economic Numbers

0 thoughts on “Before the Open (Sep 21)”

  1. for the first time in a few days the world intramarket correlations feel more negative than positive–
    maybe because the euro is being allowed to drift a little lower,rather than being held higher by central banks joint “cooperation”
    maybe the world big bank hedgies are set with their key strike price puts and reddy to destroy the alpha mutual long onlys that are always on the wrong side of a down
    maybe the bear is getting close to resuming–remember the hedgie traders want their yearly bonuses and can make some quick bucks on a down
    early trading will be large range bound–sell tops –sleep or buy bottoms

  2. the german dax does not have its upward vigour today and the ndx100 has made a close to 768 fib wave 2 up retracement–the apples feel old worn out and about to get worms

  3. ESZ1: Looks like the Bell Hops are trying to break 1200 this morning. I’m flat looking for follow through or the lack of.
    The 60d/60m is going sideways into the upper range of the down sloping linear regression. The LR range looks to be 1125-1200. I predict a close above 1175 will be bullish and a close below 1150 bearish. My, that was daring.
    Zacks: The Twist #2 should make large cap dividend payers inside the Dow very attractive versus the 10 year Treasury. Is that why you were pushing dividend payers Neal?

  5. I’m inclined to give the uptrend since the AUG low more room to run higher as long as SPX holds in the 1170-1190 area. The daily MACD & RSI are positive and the bearish sentiment remains too high, inviting a short squeeze.
    From an EW perspective, I think we may be forming eiher a triangle or a “double zig-zag”, i.e. ABC X ABC. A triangle would imply that 1230 won’t be broken but a double zig-zag would imply a reach to the upper band of the flag formation and a new high above 1230. Whatever, we should end this correction of the longer term downtrend by the end of SEPT, if not the end of this week/early next – in my opinion. In the meantime, it’s trading affair for daytraders and scalpers but a waiting affair for swing and longer term traders, as Jason suggests.

  7. some things that worry me
    dax failure to break out of a downward channel after a impulsive down
    ndx 100, 3/4 retracement in wave 2–ndx composite following spx /dji
    spx /dji a abc/abc in a up ward fashion is bullish in bull market–new H/L
    but bearish in a bear market
    spx failed to make /hold most recent new high,puting spx in a weak possition ,being below the 50% and the bear in a stronger position for a larger down
    corrections can be in price or time or both–imo we have had enough time in a weak wave 2

  8. on many a chart this corection is taking on the appearance of a H/Shoulders and very sideways in character–not bullish–puting the bear in a strong position

  9. im looking for a impulsive move by fri/mon and i do not favour neals alpha mutual long only’s—dividends wont help if the company is bust–we need some ghost busters or is that myth busters

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