Good morning. Happy Monday. I hope you had a nice weekend.
The Asian/Pacific markets closed with mostly solid gains. Hong Kong gained 2%. Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Japan, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan rallied more than 1%. Europe is currently trading mixed and with a bearish bias. Almost all the markets are close to their unchanged levels. Futures here in the States point towards a flat or slightly down open for the cash market.
I don’t have anything major to add to the comments I made over the weekend in my weekly report. What started as a bounce within a range (the fifth one in the last two months) has gone far enough to be considered different than the previous ones. This one has gone farther and lasted longer, and sentiment seems to have shifted. Whereas before I wanted to be ahead of the curve taking profits, not waiting for a trailing stop to be taken out, I am now willing to let positions go for an extra day or so. I also think a dip gets bought whereas before I felt a dip would travel at least to the low side of the range.
News of course trumps the charts so things can change, but for now that’s how I’m playing it. From a technical standpoint, I favor the upside. I get this both from a top-down approach (looking at the indexes, then drilling down to the sectors, etc) and a bottom-up approach (looking at the charts of 1000 individual stocks to gauge sentiment, strength/weakness and potential future movement). Even though the indexes are still mostly range bound, things have taken a turn for the better the last two weeks. More after the open.
headlines at Yahoo Finance
today’s upgrades/downgrades
this week’s Earnings
this week’s Economic Numbers
0 thoughts on “Before the Open (Oct 17)”
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your positive shift makes me feel
warm and fuzzy all over. es
Howard – It wouldn’t surprise anyone, as the DOW approaches 12,000. Maybe that’s a sell signal!!
we’re probably due for at least a pullback to digest the gains from SPX 1075. To me, more than ever during this consolidation since AUG, the way any pullback unfolds should be critical as to whether we continue higher or the bear resumes.
ESZ1: Looking for a “Goose” b4 going long.
I’m calling this a Wave1up from 10/4. I’d like to see 1250-1275 breached b4 a pullback then buy the Wave2 sweet spot, but, at the moment, it doesn’t look like Mother Goose is on the trading floor.
One way to find out would be to introduce yourself Howard.
thanks, Mom :))
LOL!
Does anybody out there still follow McHugh, I wonder?
Well just to let you know he has a turn cycle date
coming up for this Thursday, so I got to go now
to my AA meeting and let’s see how the Dow closes
today…err…flat or slightly up 22 points perhaps.
Never heard of him. How many times has he been right?
I’d have to see a breakdown below SPX 1191 area before I could seriously consider the idea of further downside potential and an end to the rally from 1075.
I’m putting it at 1180. Seems to have more support than 1190 and the 200 day is at 1180. But,,,1190 would be nicer.
RichE – I have the SPX 200 day SMA as 1275 & the 200 day EMA (my preference) at 1235. Maybe you meant a different moving average. SPX 1191 area for me represents the 50 day EMA as well as last THUR’s intraday low, which I think has some significance.
On a separate note, it’s been pointed out in a number of places that the bearish sentiment coming into the OCT low at 1075 was extreme by any measurement. That bearish sentiment needs to be worked off and I presume most of this rally has been short covering in response to that extreme bearishness. The question in my mind is how long it will take to work it off and do we have to go beyond SPX 1230 in order to do it? That’s why I view the manner in which any pullback occurs from FRI’s high as an important clue as to just how bullish this move from 1075 really is (as opposed to just short covering prior to a resumption of the sell off from the MAY high). Furthermore, I note that the volume has diminished during this rally.