Good morning. Happy Thursday.
The Asian/Pacific markets closed mixed. India (down 1.2%) and Indonesia (up 1%) were the only 1% movers. Europe is currently mostly up, but there are no big winners. Futures here in the States point towards a positive open for the cash market.
The dollar is up slightly. So is oil and copper. Gold and silver are down.
Forget a year-end rally. The market is simply doing what it’s been doing all year – trade range bound with little momentum in either direction. All the year bulls and bears have taken turns pushing prices in their favor, but neither group has been able to sustain a move. This has resulted in a difficult swing trading environment. We have not been able to enter and then sit back and let the charts play out for a couple months. We’ve had to be ahead of the curve taking profits and content to shoot for singles and doubles instead of homeruns. To make money, you must be flexible. You can’t force your system or style on a market. Instead you have to see what the market is offering and make slight adjustments to your style.
I think things stay mostly the same in early 2012 but then a trending move will begin. We’ll see. Let’s hope. Up or down I don’t care, but it’d be nice if Europe wasn’t in the headlines every day so we could get some consistency.
My overall bias is to the downside. I am not willing to give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls. They’ll have to earn it. This doesn’t mean I won’t consider long trades. It just means long trades will be taken with the intention of taking profits sooner rather than later. More after the open.
headlines at Yahoo Finance
headlines at MarketWatch
today’s upgrades/downgrades
this week’s Earnings
this week’s Economic Numbers
0 thoughts on “Before the Open (Dec 29)”
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McHugh from technicaltraders.com says there is a big triangle forming
and resolution of this triangle will result in a big move early next
year. Various blogs, websites involved in this business show identical
patterns forming so I, for one will keep my trading light until we see
some new pattern take shape as we head into the New Year. HW/nyc
Chris – In response to your late post yesterday, here’s what I see. Looking at the hourly chart, I see a probable 5 wave downward sequence completed with a bounce now in progress. If my count is correct, the resistance would be in the SPX 1257-1262 area(Fibo .382 to .618 projection). With a 5 wave decline completed, it’s likely, after the bounce ends, that there would be further downside movement with an expected test of the 1242-1245ish area and, below that support, there should be a test of the 1230-1236 area.
From a slightly longer term perspective, a break of 1242 would negate the idea that the rally that began at 1202 is a 5 wave rally in progress. I’m inclined to short the 1257-1262 area on signs of a completed bounce & reversal with a tight stop loss and look for a minimum test of the day’s low at 1250ish in order to stay short.
To follow up on my last post, we’ve tagged 1257ish and are encountering some resistance. A pullback that holds 1252-1254 would suggest another rally attempt into the higher end of the 1257-1262 projected resistance. I’m not anxious to get short yet this early in the day, unless I see a reversal downward with some acceleration.
I’d sell a new high above SPX 1260 that reverses downward.
We may be seeing an impulsive move down afterfailing to get a intraday high above SPX 1260ish. If so, on a bounce from above 1256, I’d look for a place to short (ideally above 1258)and if there’s no downside break after from below 1260, I’d cover quickly.
GAINT allien spiders have invaded every part of earth
they have been employed by the evil instos to keep the year end status quo,whilst they are on vacation
they are run by remote controled computers and the spiders vibrate to 20-30 minute cycles
i therefor like to keep my sniper scalping activities to under 20 minute trades
the instos have large weekly opts bets for year end fri based on the spiders ability to control
Thanks Pete…trading seems directionless today, slight drift up. I’m waiting.
Chris – the impulsive move down I referred to earlier this AM never panned out. I’m still focused on 1262 (with more chart resistance up to 1264). I’m looking at a 15 minute chart which could be showing a wedge (EW ending diagaonal)that may be in play. More importantly, this move up today looks corrective of yesterday’s down move (hourly 5 waves down). The .618 retrace level has worked in the past, so a short position on a reversal to the downside is my preference.
I think we need to always consider the 3rd option, a sideways market with underlying range bound trading of a few days to weeks as well as developing new leaders. Trend line breaks and support resistance bounces seem to be working.
Still long, looking to take profit
UTHR TOL LPX OCR
Closed but looking to re-short
GDX via DUST
GLD via DZZ
Watching TVIX for a potential seasonal play in January.
Best of luck
Raymond – sounds like the “kid with a ruler” drawing those trendlines has served you well. Congrats on the long positions!
The new year seems to be itself setting up for better stock market performance