Before the Open (Jan 2)

Good morning. Happy Monday. Happy New Years.
Most of the Asian/Pacific markets were closed today. Of the ones open, none moved more than 1%. Most of Europe on the other hand is open and posting decent gains. Austria and Germany are up more than 2%. Belgium, France and Stockholm are up more than 1%. Futures here in the States point towards a flat open for the cash market.

There are reasons to expect today to be slow, but you never know. With so many overseas markets being closed and many people having today off work, today may be an extension of last week’s relatively slow, range-bound movement. Plus many traders will be more focused on the bowl games than their computer screens. Gambling on trading floors is very prevelant.
There are reasons to be bullish and reasons to be bearish heading into the new year.
The biggest reason to be bullish is simply because the market didn’t drop in 2011. It was thrown a massive amount of negative news, and in the end, after it had many excuses to fall apart, it was flat. Rallying or holding up in the face of bad news is a good sign. On the flip side, the situation in Europe is still on the front page, the wrong stocks and groups are leading the market and the small caps are lagging. Something has to give.
The S&P closed Friday at 1257.60. If we were to get some movement, my upside target is 1270, and my downside is the 1235-1240 range. Here’s a short term chart.

Volume was light last week and it’ll be light today. Real trading starts tomorrow. More after the open.
headlines at Yahoo Finance
headlines at MarketWatch
today’s upgrades/downgrades
this week’s Earnings
this week’s Economic Numbers