Before the Open (Jan 30)

Posted on by Jason Leavitt

Good morning. Happy Monday. Hope you had a good weekend.
The Asian/Pacific markets closed mostly down. India lost more than 2%. China, Indonesia and South Korea dropped more than 1%. Europe is currently down across the board. Austria is down almost 3%. Belgium, France and Stockholm are down more than 1%. Futures here in the States point towards a moderate gap down open for the cash market.

The dollar is up. Oil and copper are down. Gold and silver are down.
The market cracked last week. It dropped 3 of 5 days and for the first time since the beginning of December it dropped two consecutive days. Going back to the middle of December, every intraday dip and opening gap down has been bought, but last Thursday the market trended down all day. Subtle hints like these increase the odds a much needed rest is underway. Plus the divergences between the market and the AD line and AD volume line are still in place, and at the end of last week, the PC started to curl up. Needless to say this isn’t a great time to aggressively enter longs. The risk/rewards aren’t great. If you buy stocks at the beginning of a rally, you can buy almost anything and make money because a rising tide will raise most ships. But buying later in the trend has to be done with a little more care. Such is the current situation. More after the open.
headlines at Yahoo Finance
headlines at MarketWatch
today’s upgrades/downgrades
this week’s Earnings
this week’s Economic Numbers

0 thoughts on “Before the Open (Jan 30)”

  1. Time to lock in some profits, have some hedges on look for the new leaders, wait for the next swing low. AAPL NFLX some low floaters still strong.
    Good luck

  4. Check the market response after some historical sovgn crises and defaults
    Iceland – October 2008 (the first blow up from the financial sector deregulation in the US & Europe)
    Argentina – 2001 – 2002
    Brazil – November 1998
    Thailand (& Asia crisis) – Aug 1997
    Russia – Aug 1989
    Most media and pundits are spew ‘entertainment’, are just plain wrong, idiots or charlatans. Research and think for yourselves.
    The markets are designed to take your money, not give it freely. The media, especially the web is designed to distract you – beat drums in the east, attack from the west – Sun Tsu.
    Speculate intelligently….’bleep’ the idiots and charlatans.

    1. Did the world end? Go into a depression? Civil war break out? Old headline entertainment flashes from same bleep heads!
      Read Ken Fisher’s books. Even very short term traders will benefit on his fact based observations. No he is not right all the time, just most of the time.

  5. Last FRI, I mentioned that, from an EW perspective, there appeared to be a 5 wave decline on the SPX hourly chart with a bounce expected that might find resistance at 1320-1325 (Fibo resistance area. The bounce reversed around 1320 and today’s drop has the appearance of another impulsive decline. So far then, we have a 3 wave decline which I’m thinking is part of wave 4 of larger wave C. If we could see 5 waves down (instead of the present 3 waves down), I would expect lower prices before wave 4 ends. If not, we may find that the rest of the weeks ends up sideways before wave 5 begins. As I mentioned last week, IMO, only a move down below 1267 would put the bullish trend in question.

  6. Agree, some profit taking, weak hand shake out, whatever reason induced pullback is due and required. However, never fail to capitalize on both short term and long term opportunities.
    Fortune (& wealth) favors the bold & decisive. On the flip side don’t be a reckless idiot 😉

  7. Entertainment Headlines from Congress
    1. Stop Trading on Congressional Knowledge (STOCK) Act of 2012 – S.2038
    The Senate is scheduled to take up this bill to ban members and aides from trading stocks using information learned through the course of their duties. I wonder if nifty acronyms help pass a bill.
    2. Pro-Growth Budgeting Act of 2011 – H.R.3582
    This House bill would require the Congressional Budget Office to take into account the effect a bill might have on the economy when analyzing a bill. Ahh, so currently congress doesn’t ascertain the effect of their actions.
    3. Baseline Reform Act of 2011 – H.R.3578
    This House bill would stop the Congressional Budget Office from incorporating inflation projections into their bill analysis. You heard it here first folks, congress mandates no inflation. Geezzzzzzzzz!

  8. Fibo relationships always facinate me and today’s action is interesting in that regard. Firstly though, in EW, wave 4 can’t overlap wave 1 for there to be a 5 wave impulsive move. In SPX, today’s rally from the the day’s low has overlapped wave 1 down from SPX 1333ish to 1311.50ish, clarifying the decline,IMO, as a 3 wave corrective move down so far from 1333.
    Getting back to Fibo relationships, the decline so far has found support at a .382 retrace of the rally from 1248 to 1333. We are now looking at Fibo resistance above (i.e. the decline from 1333 to 1300) at 1313ish to 1320ish. If this rally is a 3 wave advance, we may be looking at a sideways triangle formation forming, which is typical in a 4th wave. I also note that the opening gap down would be filled just above 1316. Once again, the bears failed to take control when the opportunity presented itself – at least so far.

  11. Solars still showing interest, esp the Chinese
    1/2 out CSIQ, putting in a rounding bottom. its really a chinese co getting a foot hold in canada.
    TSL should be the main player in china.
    All volatile, so dont play if you dont have the stomach or the acct reserves. there are other plays.

  12. Any time you have a great month, qtr think about the less fortunate.
    Not the drunk or drug addict losers.
    Donate 5-10% of your winnings to a worthy charity, tax credit + its good karma, it comes back.

Leave a Reply