Good morning. Happy Monday. Hope you had a nice weekend.
The Asian/Pacific markets closed mostly down. Hong Kong, India and Taiwan dropped more than 1%. Europe is currently mostly down. Austria and Germany are down better than 1%. Futures here in the States point towards a slight down open for the cash market.
The dollar flat. Oil is flat and copper is down. Gold and silver are down.
I don’t have anything to add to the comments I made over the weekend in the Weekly Report. The trend remains up, but the warnings signs are getting extreme.
The 10-day of the AD line and AD volume line are near 0.
The % of SPX and NDX stocks at 20-day highs have been falling for a couple weeks.
The % of SPX and NDX Stocks above their 20-day MAs have been falling.
Copper failed to make a higher high with the market…so did the semis.
The put/call is moving up.
The small caps, which have been lagging for two weeks, broke down last Friday.
Divergences in the near term can last a few weeks – long enough to allow the charts to reset. But eventually they do matter. I would be very careful here. Trading is not hard when the “coast is clear,” but when there are so many cross currents, we’d be wise to lay low. I believe this to be the current situation. Don’t be a hero. If things don’t entirely make sense to you, it’s ok to say: “this just doesn’t look right; I’m going to sit tight until I have a better feel for things.”
More after the open.
headlines at Yahoo Finance
headlines at MarketWatch
today’s upgrades/downgrades
this week’s Earnings
this week’s Economic Numbers
0 thoughts on “Before the Open (Mar 5)”
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Friday last hr saw some broad based selling though on low vol.
New and revitalized leaders are still strong. Should still be defensive and very selective.
Russian elections over, China hinting at internal QE initiatives – neutral / bullish. Likely some pullback short term.
Good luck.
Dow 3000
lol
instos have been hedged during this entire up move ,especially in tech
we have had distribution and im hoping for all out war to break out between the bulls/bears in next few days
go the vix
the market that will control the usa is the dax
and with in the next year china will dictate usa economic policy
but the U.S. has more guns than China. When the U.S. trades its guns for debt then I’ll worry.
We will retest brk out levels, some will fail, but not for all stocks / ETFs.
Closing out DUST KOLD overnight holds
Staying net long raised more cash. Looking to redeploy.
Good luck.
Potential rebuy / addin pts coming up. Wait for confirmation
No big drop confirmed yet. defensives, new alphas & revitalized alphas very strong.
AAPL is not the mrkt
SPX is not the mrkt, its a pig slop of gems and fat ass has been garbage. Check for yourself.
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=spy&ty=c&ta=0&p=m
vs
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=xrt&ty=c&ta=0&p=m
Note the retails broke out a yr ago, retested, shook off the suckers and took off again, compare that against any index even the nsdq100 the QQQ. There others. And within those sectors and beyond are the alpha stocks new and revitalized. You must look under the hood, be willing to work and trade with intelligence not be lead around like sheep – the economy is bad, there is this crisis and that crisis, etc etc.
And why trading futures, except for chicken feed and the odd volatility gift is a low odds game and not a way to learn to trade profitably and for big money.
Those of you that have worked in the real world, have managed a business unit, hired and fired staff know what I mean. You can hire or work for people with great presentation, poise, their articulate communications indicating seemingly great intelligences and experienced wisdom. But you need to check facts and performance. Then you find the real performers and your basic bleeping useless bleep heads and con artist losers.
Bottom line, speculate with intelligence and ruthless decisiveness. Observe, analyse, act. Have an extreme prejudice against economists, so called gurus, media personalities who cant trade worth a damn who are are bleeping up your opportunities to make money. Heed Ken Fisher’s advice – think about your beliefs / opinions that may be wrong – for every trading time frame.
It is time to be defensive but not a time to be missing opportunities – on either side of the trade.
SPX broke down through 10day EMA but looking like a corrective 3 wave decline so far on hourly chart, IMO. A back test of the broken trendline breached today that connects lows from late DEC should give a clue as to whether there’s more downside ahead. 20 day EMA sits at 1355ish and could be next target if backtest fails and downside resumes. Looks like wave 4 of C may be in progress unless downside momentum builds in impulsive fashion rather than corrective 3 wave patterns.
Not as weak as I thought.
What are your thoughts / observations of the cyclical vs defensive sectors?
Also trust that you are not in UNG. More storage and warm weather to work off.
No government incentives announced.
May close the gap tomorrow but need to wait.
A spoonful of volume helps the medicine go down. In the most delightful way.
Perhaps.
Perhaps some slop and chop in which case best to hang tight or stand aside.
“Slop and chop”? Poop and scoop is truthfuller.
Strange looking charts. Looks wrong to be long. Like you say Jason wait for your pitch.
Pretty much, Apple and Dell are the only ones in this industry making money. They make it by being Wal-Mart. We make it by innovation. Steve Jobs