Before the Open (Mar 15)

Posted on by Jason Leavitt

Good morning. Happy Thursday.
The Asian/Pacific markets close mixed; New Zealand rallied 1%. Europe is currently mostly up; there are no big winners or losers. Futures here in the States point towards a positive open for the cash market.
The dollar is down. Oil and copper are up. Gold and silver are up.
We got a big move up on Tuesday and then a stall day yesterday. But the Russell small caps didn’t make a higher high Tuesday and yesterday, while most of the indexes closed with a small loss or gain, dropped almost 1%. Lagging small caps has not been able to pull the market down the last month, but it has restricted the upside progress.
Overall you can’t fight the trend. It’ll end when it ends, and it’s foolish to guess when that will be. And besides, tops tend to be rounded and take time to form – weeks and sometimes months. Even if the market were to establish a high today, there would be several additional thrusts up over the next couple months, and given the lack of correlation, there would still be much money to be made on the long side.
Surprisingly, research yesterday reveal many decent short set ups. If you’re an active short term trader, here are some ideas just in case Tuesday was some sort of short term blow off top. Don’t overstay your welcome. I fully expect the uptrend to continue and more new highs to be made. More after the open.
headlines at Yahoo Finance
headlines at MarketWatch
today’s upgrades/downgrades
this week’s Earnings
this week’s Economic Numbers

0 thoughts on “Before the Open (Mar 15)”

  1. Wow, it is quiet today.
    I appreciate the idea that there is ‘usually’ plenty of time to take corrective action after a trend change. However, I don’t believe that is a universal truth. And, most investors seem to deny that trend change has occurred, the thrusts up are viewed as a resumption of the prior trend and holding through the failed attempt to resume the prior trend becomes the breeding ground for delusional views of what is happening. It goes from ‘this is only a minor correction’ to ‘it’s just not complete yet’ to ‘wow, this is a major correction’ to ‘I am not going to miss the next rally opportunity to get out’ and finally to ‘If I wait long enough it will recover and I will finally get even.’ Jason, I somewhat agree that bull markets don’t let you in and bear markets don’t let you out. However, I think it is the investors interpretation that is the culprit.
    Despite how painful it can be to pick tops and bottoms, I do anticipate a top very soon (within hours). If that proves to be true, then I wish on no one the denial that is such a common reaction. Unfortunately, nothing is more clear than the image in the rear view mirror.
    Sorry Raymond for the lack of trade ideas in my thoughts. I’m only sharing those thoughts in which I have conviction as I believe you do. I am long the USD and continue to seek opportunities to short general market indexes.
    Pete, my current count is 3 of 3 of 5 of 5 of C (6 min bars). If true, we are heading for a new high now.

    1. It has been clear to alot of people we are too high without pullbacks. It is becomming more obvious and more people are catching on. This market is being propped up too high and not allowed to pullback to smooth volitility and keep money in the market. Have you noticed every morning we sell it down to see if/when the fed comes in?

  2. As the dollar goes up to try and lower the price of oil, stocks should have been coming down. Bernakes afraid of a global domino collapse the like of which we’ve never seen.

  4. Yo Brian – I’m playing hookey on an intraday basis as I watch the opening games online of March Madness. Regarding your wave count, let me back up to see if I’m on the same page as you. I’m assuming that (despite its brevity in relation to wave 2 of C) wave 4 was completed at 1341ish. Would you agree? If so, would you agree that we began minor wave 5 of 5 of C yesterday? If so, I can see an ending diagonal wave 5 of C having formed today. An Impulsive move downward would have to begin sometime soon.
    Having said all of that, my EW analysis has been spit and I’m not confident of that count, especially since wave 4 would be short in terms of time. Frankly, I’m more disposed to look at trendlines and Fibo relationships for guidance and on that basis, I’m not seeing a top.

    1. Since I am now using the Jun emini contract, I’ll use time (CST) instead of price. I’m going with the following:
      4 of C ended on 3/6 at 13:30
      5 of 5 of C began on 3/14 at 14:18
      I agree, I am troubled by the brevity of 4

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