Before the Open (Jun 27)

Good morning. Happy Thursday.
The Asian/Pacific markets closed mostly up. Japan and South Korea rallied almost 3%; Australia, India, Indonesia and Taiwan rallied more than 1%. Europe is currently mixed and trading with an upward bias. Greece is down 3%, Spain 1%; Belgium is up 1.8%. Futures here in the States point towards an up open for the cash market.

The dollar is down. Oil and copper are up. Gold and silver are up.
After rallying intraday Friday and Monday, the market put in back to back up days Tuesday and Wednesday. The S&P closed above 1600 and is now above last Thursday’s post-FOMC sell-off. But volume has been weak, and I can’t say there’s been much force or energy behind the very near term rally (even though the S&P is up better than 40 points). There are several potential resistance levels above between 1610 and 1640. The market could roll over any time, but consider the possibility the market continues up, pauses and then moves up again. Why? You don’t think it could happen? That’s exactly why it could happen. That’s the scenario that is least expected, that would surprise the most number of people. But until the market proves itself, I’m still looking for a move to the low 1500’s.
The near term is not clear. I can map out several realistic scenarios that range from bullish to bearish and of course consider the odds the market settles into a range for the summer. I’m not afraid to say I don’t know what comes next. Like a baseball player who realizes his job is to get hits, not guess what pitch is coming next, my job (and your job) is to make money, not guess what the next move is going to be.
I’m in a wait-and-see mode. I want the market to show me more of its cards before I commit to anything.
Here are stories from barchart.com…
Commercial Metals (CMC +0.29%) reported Q3 EPS of 16 cents, weaker than consensus of 18 cents, and said it expects Q4 results to be similar to Q3 results.
Lennar (LEN +2.21%) was upgraded to “Buy” from “Fair Value” at CRT Capital with a price target of $48.
Schnitzer Steel (SCHN +0.29%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 9 cents, lower than consensus of 12 cents.
Apollo Global (APO +1.79%) was upgraded to “Buy” from “Neutral” at BofA/Merrill.
ConAgra Foods (CAG +0.24%) reported Q4 EPS of 60 cents, better than consensus of 59 cents.
McCormick & Co. (MKC +1.21%) reported Q2 EPS of 61 cents, right on expectations.
H.B. Fuller (FUL +2.75%) reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 67 cents, lower than consensus of 70 cents.
Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services said it revised the rating outlook on BlackRock Inc. (BLK +2.16%) to positive from stable, and affirmed the ‘A+/A-1’ issuer credit ratings and ‘A+’ senior unsecured rating.
Progress Software (PRGS +2.08%) surged over 10% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 27 cents, well ahead of consensus of 22 cents.
Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY +1.73%) gained nearly 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 EPS of 93 cents, right on consensus, but said Q1 revenue was $2.61 billion, slightly higher than consensus of $2.6 billion, and said that Q1 Same-Store-Sales were up approximately 3.4%.
Paychex (PAYX +0.96%) fell nearly 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of 34 cents, weaker than consensus of 38 cents.
Herman Miller (MLHR -1.88%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 43 cents, better than consensus of 36 cents.
this week’s Earnings
this week’s Economic Numbers
today’s upgrades/downgrades