Before the Open (Aug 19)

Posted on by Jason Leavitt

Good morning. Happy Monday. Hope you had a nice weekend.
The Asian/Pacific markets closed mostly down. Indonesia dropped a whopping 5.6%. India and Singapore also lost ground; China and Japan moved up. Europe is currently mostly down. Greece is down 3.5%: Italy and Spain are down more than 1%; Austria, Belgium and France are down about 1%. Futures here in the States point towards a down open for the cash market.

The dollar is flat. Oil and copper are down. Gold is down, silver up.
The market finally broke out of its range last week. After almost five weeks of dips getting bought and rallies getting sold, a big gap down did not get bought. This now puts a big block of resistance overhead in the form of traders who are trapped in losing positions and who want to get out even.
The move down was induced by news from Walmart and Cisco, but in reality, those announcements were just conveniences. A breakdown was hinted at by numerous indicators for a couple weeks. The market held up for a while, but eventually it just couldn’t keep ignoring what was going on under the hood.
The long term trend remains solidly up, but the near term is down. Until the market changes its stripes, I’m approaching the market as if this is a pullback within an uptrend, not the beginning of a full-blown correction. Why wouldn’t I? Being bullish has paid off well for many years while the bears have gotten destroyed month after month.
Regarding the trading environment, it hasn’t been good. The lack of a near term trend has limited follow through from most breakouts. Set ups have been following through for a day or two but ultimately not traveling far before reversing. This is the way things have been, and there’s nothing you can do to change it. We don’t control the market, we just see what the market is and trade accordingly. If the market wants to give us little moves, we have to take them and not bargain for more. Eventually a trend will establish itself, and we’ll be able to loosen up with stops and give positions more time and space to play out. Until then, be happy with small gains. More after the open.
Stock headlines from barchart.com…
Cablevision (CVC -1.07%) was downgraded to “Neutral” from “Buy” at Nomura.
PulteGroup (PHM +2.33%) was upgraded to “Outperform” from “Market Perform” at Wells Fargo.
Apache (APA -1.59%) was downgraded to a “Hold” from “Buy” at Stifel.
The Korea Economic Daily News reported that Samsung (SSNLF -3.25%) will launch a 12 inch tablet PC, the biggest screen of any tablet released so far.
Dollar General (DG -1.93%) was upgraded to “Overweight” from “Neutral” at JPMorgan.
Kaiser Aluminum (KALU +0.87%) was upgraded to “Buy” from “Neutral” at Sterne Agee.
Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH -2.50%) was upgraded to “Buy” from “Neutral” at UBS.
Ross Stores (ROST -0.20%) was initiated with an “Overweight” at Barclays with a price target of $80.
Public Storage (PSA -2.21%) was upgraded to “Sector Perform” from “Underperform” at RBC Capital.
Phillips 66 Partners (PSXP -0.55%) was initiated with an “Overweight” at JPMorgan with a price target of $39 a share.
Carl Icahn reports a 9.98% stake in Chesapeake (CHK +0.04%) .
Earnings from seekingalpha.com…
Notable earnings before today’s open: none
Notable earnings after today’s close: ANW, GWAY
Other
today’s upgrades/downgrades from briefing.com
this week’s Earnings
this week’s Economic Numbers

0 thoughts on “Before the Open (Aug 19)”

  2. The Host said today…Just a pull back in a long run bull. Then: “Why wouldn’t I? Being bullish has paid off well for many years while the bears have gotten destroyed month after month.” Is this technician language, or that of historian?? Nothing for anyone in following a broken record. Historically, the market since the Civil War has risen, but not always. Bye.

    1. The bears have been predicting the end of the world for several years. But let’s face it, if you’ve been bullish since the 2009 bottom like I have, you were on the right side of the market 95% of the time. End of story. Every time the market hiccups the bears start pounding their chests. Then the market makes new highs, and those same bears disappear. Repeat, repeat, repeat. One of these days I’ll be wrong, but I’d rather be wrong one time at the top than wrong 20 times along the way.

  3. I see the small caps are again under performing the market. It really sticks in my mind. In October of 2007 it happened. I got out of the market until March and then I got back in. Big mistake but still 20% above buy and hold.

  4. why cant traders trade the short side
    its the best part
    forget individual stocks they are just pawns to be shorted against
    the real game is the futures or even day or weekly opts
    thats where the volume has gone to

  5. do u know what a broker is
    i trade against the broker
    he supplies the money and platform and i pay the interest if long
    if my bet is too big he sometimes layes some off
    the more scalps i take the more the broker looses

  6. Hey Aussie JS- How the Hell did you get into Syd Uni Law ?? Your spelling is absolutely atrocious !! I was there for 2 yrs +@ Syd Uni Law (remember Prof Ted Wheelwright ?) and would have been very surprised that you would have been accepted into Australia’s most prestiges Law Program !!
    Esp as you ventured into Locksmithing…..very odd and capricious…….

  7. And Neal__ PERTH is as far west and southern as is Townsville is East and far North……..within the confines of Australia….
    Why is that Americans know SO LITTLE about Australia in relation to our knowledge of America ??

Leave a Reply