Leavitt Brothers Cyber Week Special
Good morning. Happy Tuesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets leaned to the downside. China gained 0.7%; South Korea, Australia, Hong Kong and Indonesia dropped the most. Europe is currently down across the board. Austria, Spain, Italy, France, Germany, Switzerland and Czech Republic are down more than 1%. Futures here in the States point towards a moderate gap down open for the cash market.
The dollar is down. Oil is up, copper down. Gold and silver are up.
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After yesterday’s drop, the market fell for the second straight day for only the second time since October. In the grand scheme of things, it’s not a big deal. The long term picture looks good, and I continue to expect higher prices in the future. The near term, however, as noted over the weekend, is less clear. Starting with the three late-day sell-offs last week and culminating in a handful of breadth indicators not supporting higher prices right now, the market wasn’t necessarily due for a pullback, the numbers just weren’t supporting more upside.
Within an uptrend, I only go long, but my exposure oscillates between being almost all in (I’m almost never all in these days) and having much less exposure. As a rally matures and the upside seems limited, I scale back. Then when prices drop back or enough time passes for the indicators to cycle, I increase my exposure. I don’t go short. I leave that to better short term trades who can pick the mini moves in both directions. For me, I’d rather play the bigger picture because it has served me well.
Your style has to be yours – crafted from hundreds of trades and many months or years of “in the arena” practice.
My first downside target for the S&P is 1785.
Stock headlines from barchart.com…
Disney (DIS +0.52%) was downgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Buy’ at B. Riley.
ChannelAdvisor said that Cyber Monday same-store sales were up 44.3% for Amazon (AMZN -0.34%) and up 32.1% for eBay (EBAY +1.64%) from midnight ET to 6 pm ET.
CME Group (CME -0.68%) said that November 2013 volume averaged 12.1 million contracts per day, up 9% compared with November 2012.
Pfizer (PFE +0.32%) was downgraded to ‘Buy’ from ‘Conviction Buy’ at Goldman.
AK Steel (AKS -1.59%) was upgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Underperform’ at BofA/Merrill.
Oceaneering (OII +2.02%) was upgraded to ‘Buy’ from ‘Hold’ at Societe Generale.
Apple (AAPL -0.87%) rose over 1% in pre-market trading after UBS upgraded the stock to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral’ and raised its price target on the stock to $650 from $540.
Heartland Advisors reported a 13.9% stake in Hudson Global (HSON +2.34%) .
International Data Corporation said it expects worldwide PC shipments to fall by -10.1% in 2013, slightly more the previous projection of -9.7%, and by far the most severe yearly contraction on record.
Thor Industries (THO +0.33%) reported Q1 EPS of 77 cents, well above consensus of 70 cents.
Xcel Energy (XEL -0.36%) was downgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Buy’ at Goldman.
Shoe Carnival (SCVL -5.05%) reported Q3 EPS of 54 cents, higher than consensus of 53 cents.
Ascena Retail (ASNA -1.97%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 36 cents, better than consensus of 32 cents.
Roundy’s (RNDY -2.53%) acquired 11 Dominick’s stores from Safeway (SWY -1.09%) for $36 million in cash.
Earnings and Economic Numbers from seekingalpha.com…
Today’s economic calendar:
Auto sales
7:45 ICSC Retail Store Sales
8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
Notable earnings before today’s open: BMO, LTXC
Notable earnings after today’s close: BOBE, GBDC, GWRE, OVTI, UNFI
Other…
today’s upgrades/downgrades from briefing.com
this week’s Earnings
this week’s Economic Numbers
0 thoughts on “Before the Open (Dec 3)”
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Da “boyz” took it to the top of resistance yesterday at 1810, and then let go. After falling all afternoon, futures continued to drop overnight. They have bounced at an area of support which equates to SPX 1795 and extends down to 1790. If that is broken, Jason’s tgt of 1785 should be in their sights. There may be a bounce after breaking 1790 to get the bulls’ hopes up, so watch for a reversal.
If support holds, the upside tgt is >1815 up to 1822. ETA is UNK.
Futures check at 30 mins to the bell -6.5, lo of the night -7.75
The market is interesting, but too unstable to locate trends, if any exist. The risk/reward in equities right now seem to give too much to NFP on Friday, and the Fed meets again in two weeks and could …taper. Sit tight and see what the powers that be do to the market. I suspect the disappointing consumer spending is saying something important long run. The manufacturing numbers are good and moving up, but not a major indicator; besides who is buying all this stuff? Then Obama care threatens consumers, so I am wait and see but not expecting too much.
Frankly, I think disinflation is possible Q1 ’14. That will bring Yellen out of the Fed trying to show she is a gunslinger just like the boys. I may go back to Hawaii. Meanwhile our kids are not doing well in math and science. I knew my kids were intellectual bums, but I was counting on yours.